5613 Cairo Ave · Birmingham, AL 35228

$33,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1952 9,147 sqft lot Est $61k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 BR, 2 BA investment property is a diamond in the rough, ready for a full clean-out and some TLC. Featuring a spacious living room, a functional kitchen with ample potential for updates and a cozy den area perfect for additional living space or an office. The bathrooms are in need of updating but provide a great foundation for modern renovations. With vision and effort, this property could be transformed into a beautiful rental or resale opportunity. Contracts are subject to court approval.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Modern renovations
• Cozy den area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• COZY DEN AREA
• MODERN RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oxmoor K5 (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 478 students, 85% FRL); Wenonah High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 656 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $232 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,490 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.32%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,320
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5121 Molton Gray Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+2%)	13mo	$33,500	$32	85
1845 Collier Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-1%)	9mo	$43,500	$43	64
510 Basie Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (+1%)	4mo	$75,000	$73	61
5741 King Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,009 (-1%)	14mo	$45,000	$45	58
1841 Stone Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	992 (-3%)	4mo	$60,000	$60	58
5737 King Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+3%)	15mo	$43,000	$41	52
724 Illinois Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-1%)	8mo	$110,000	$109	49
1022 Herring St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-2%)	14mo	$139,000	$139	47
1808 Collier Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,174 (+15%)	11mo	$83,000	$71	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $27,996
• Equity at exit: $4,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.34×
• Total profit: $59,499
• Equity at exit: $2,896

Cash invested: $9,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35228

• Home prices YoY: -3.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $337

Max offer price $33,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,375
• Closing costs: $1,005
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
925 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1104	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.75mi
1721 Collier Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	925	$800	$0.86	43d	1	0.75mi
923 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1273	$1,200	$0.94	23d	1	0.75mi
36 Wilkes Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	762	$875	$1.15	43d	1	0.78mi
537 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,200	$0.83	23d	1	0.78mi
517 Grant St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$850	$0.93	23d	1	0.80mi
830 Burwell St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1011	$1,200	$1.19	43d	1	0.90mi
222 4th Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,050	$0.81	43d	1	0.91mi
5704 14th St S Bessemer, AL	2.0	2.0	1024	$850	$0.83	15d	1	0.98mi
5709 13th St S Bessemer, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	1.06mi
120 Parkwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,150	$0.94	15d	1	1.12mi
6001 Ivy St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	906	$950	$1.05	43d	1	1.14mi
733 Glen Ridge Dr Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.0	1225	$1,378	$1.12	1d	1	1.19mi
520 Brewer Dr Bessemer, AL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,100	$1.06	3d	1	1.25mi
4029 Walnut Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,369	$1.05	3d	1	1.28mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 400-1 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$1,175	$1.26	2d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 424-10 Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.5	1035	$1,275	$1.23	11d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 400-12 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$915	$1.03	10d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 416-11 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$975	$1.04	2d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 424-3 Fairfield, AL	3.0	1.5	1035	$1,200	$1.16	10d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 436-11 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.5	935	$910	$0.97	10d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 436-10 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$890	$1.00	10d	1	1.29mi
412 Fairfax Dr Unit 444-12 Fairfield, AL	2.0	1.0	888	$910	$1.02	10d	1	1.29mi
1433 Rayfield Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$950	$0.89	43d	1	1.29mi
4120 George Ave SW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	944	$850	$0.90	23d	1	1.30mi
4009 Grasselli Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	23d	1	1.30mi
603 11th Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1289	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	1.33mi
1441 Creel St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,275	$0.97	3d	1	1.36mi
605 10th Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1060	$850	$0.80	43d	1	1.36mi
1412 Woodward Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,203	$0.99	15d	1	1.37mi
407 Fairfax Dr Fairfield, AL	1.0	1.5	850	$1,160	$1.36	43d	2	1.38mi
5912 Owen St Bessemer, AL	3.0	1.5	1192	$1,300	$1.09	43d	1	1.42mi
616 Rutledge Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1416	$1,095	$0.77	21d	1	1.43mi
3729 Pine Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1067	$1,100	$1.03	21d	1	1.45mi
806 12th Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1262	$1,075	$0.85	43d	1	1.45mi
3736 Oak Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,050	$1.07	23d	1	1.46mi
608 5th Ave Midfield, AL	3.0	1.0	1241	$795	$0.64	21d	1	1.47mi
546 Selma Rd Bessemer, AL	3.0	1.0	888	$900	$1.01	43d	1	1.47mi
1376 Creel Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,000	$0.99	43d	1	1.47mi
3729 Maple Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,200	$1.19	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-02
   historical Contingent
3. 2025-03-25
   price $33,500
4. 2025-02-24
   listed $69,500 Active
5. 1995-08-31
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,877
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$975
• Taxable income: $6,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $5,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 10,216
• Household income: $50,815
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% White 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.84%
• Current HPI: 134.8633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+45.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-06 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $33,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $69,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1995-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.