Rio Grande Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$353,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,507 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow. ..

Key facts

• Massive family room
• Private study room
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• MASSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $353,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,116.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $354k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,123 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,116
• List price: $353,990
• Delta: -5.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10003 Whitney Reach Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,444 (-2%)	2mo	$338,000	$138	93
2401 Sequoia Grove Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,433 (-3%)	2mo	$369,000	$152	77
10011 Whitney Reach Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,769 (+10%)	3mo	$425,000	$153	76
2518 Platinum Chase Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,361 (-6%)	4mo	$300,000	$127	68
9915 Sterling Village Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,859 (+14%)	3mo	$349,000	$122	64
2406 Temple Crag Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,365 (-6%)	3mo	$319,900	$135	62
9935 Clear Diamond Drive Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,657 (+6%)	6mo	$354,000	$133	54
2543 Crystal Shore Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,700 (+8%)	8mo	$312,000	$116	53
9439 Emerald Lakes Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,832 (+13%)	3mo	$349,000	$123	50
2414 Olancha Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,283 (-9%)	9mo	$290,000	$127	50
9643 Clear Diamond Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,765 (+10%)	4mo	$328,000	$119	47
2110 Sterling Oaks Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,160 (-14%)	9mo	$280,000	$130	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-85,848
• Equity at exit: $56,080

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-125,983
• Equity at exit: $32,520

Cash invested: $105,313 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,972
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,642/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,290

Max offer price $336,224

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,029
• Closing costs: $11,283
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	43d	1	0.33mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	43d	7	0.41mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	1d	6	0.41mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	4d	1	0.72mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,719	$1.64	1d	21	0.77mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.87mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,456	$0.94	7d	1	0.99mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	1.20mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	16d	1	1.41mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	43d	1	1.43mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	12d	1	1.47mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,990 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,990 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $353,990 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $353,990 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $353,990 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $353,990 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $353,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $353,990 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $353,990 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $353,990 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    listed $353,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    The wonderful, two-story Rio Grande home features an open-concept layout that is ideal for most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are met with a private study room, a walk-in utility room, a closet, and access to your two-car garage. If you need extra storage space to store holiday decorations, tools, or even another car, opt to tack on an additional five feet for a two-and a half car garage or a full three-car garage! You are soon met with the soul of the home - the massive family room with two-story ceilings serving as the perfect place for entertaining, as well as the conjoined kitchen and breakfast area providing optimal convenience. The kitchen is fully equipped with sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, and industry-leading appliances. If you desire more counterspace, you have the option of including a kitchen island or extra cabinets! The high bar in the kitchen is ideal for the kids to eat breakfast in the mornings, and opens up to the family room, full embracing the open-concept feel. For the outdoor enthusiast, this home has the option of a spacious extended covered patio in the backyard. Head across the kitchen where you will discover the convenient downstairs powder room, and the secluded master suite. Your master bathroom is complete with cultured marble countertops, the option for dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Upgrade the master bathroom by opting for a luxury bathtub with stand alone shower or a master super shower instead! Follow. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,068
• − Property taxes: −$5,642
• − Insurance: −$1,881
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,824
• − Management: −$2,824
• − Depreciation: −$10,942
• Taxable loss: −$9,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features an open-concept layout with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Paint exterior siding and clean gutters to enhance curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $353,990 Zillow