3215 Second Ave · St. Paul, VA 24283

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1950 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! This house is ready to be your next project. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with over 1000 sqft of livable space, this house is ready for its next owner to make it shine. Whether you are a seasoned investor or a DIY enthusiast, this house is perfect for you.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($937 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $45k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.99%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,072
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3219 Hardy Hollow Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+4%)	8mo	$127,000	$119	66
3408 Kilbourne Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (+4%)	20mo	$136,000	$128	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $23,533
• Equity at exit: $8,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $59,592
• Equity at exit: $6,523

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24283

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $284/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $352

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   soldstatus Closed
3. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-21
   listed $45,000 Active
5. 2015-10-06
   soldstatus $25,100
6. 2010-11-15
   soldstatus $22,806
7. 2002-05-24
   soldstatus $29,000
8. 1999-12-15
   soldstatus $30,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $369 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$85/yr (+$7/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$284
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$900
• − Management: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,873

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Current HPI: 120.7777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+45.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Sold (MLS) — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $25,100 Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,806 Public Records
• 2002-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $284 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.