3101 Timberland Trl · Fort Worth, TX 76040

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 379 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition Est $226k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sales price is subject to change without notice and not guaranteed. Pictures are for illustration purposes only. Color scheme such as paint, flooring, cabinets, backsplashes and countertops may vary. Beautiful home offers large living room with high ceilings, island kitchen, walk in pantry & stainless-steel appliances. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet & private bath.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #193 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,204
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3515 Garrett Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+7%)	14mo	$242,500	$212	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-29,875
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,615
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76040

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $69	+0% $9	+5% $-51	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-52	+0% $9	+5% $70	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $53	base $9	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11450 Trinity Blvd Euless, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$2,480	$2.40	2d	98	0.55mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	44d	1	0.88mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	0.88mi
1601 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,717	$1.62	2d	227	0.97mi
3625 Valley Vista Dr Unit 601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.98mi
3601 Valley Vista Dr Unit 3625-601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.98mi
1304 Raider Dr Euless, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,382	$1.65	2d	16	1.04mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	2.0	1008	$1,267	$1.26	3d	1	1.09mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,580	$1.46	5d	1	1.09mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,229	$1.69	8d	1	1.09mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,339	$1.24	25d	1	1.09mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	997	$1,415	$1.42	22d	1	1.09mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 3121 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,657	$1.29	3d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1769 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,718	$1.38	44d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1787 Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	751	$900	$1.20	44d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 511 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,075	$1.02	44d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1793 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	810	$1,073	$1.32	3d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1757 Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	888	$785	$0.88	3d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 2121 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,016	$1.09	17d	1	1.15mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	888	$777	$0.88	13d	1	1.16mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	1.0	1.0	913	$1,397	$1.53	21d	1	1.24mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,711	$1.45	44d	1	1.24mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,089	$1.62	4d	1	1.24mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,246	$1.80	25d	1	1.24mi
805 Central Dr Bedford, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,420	$1.79	44d	6	1.31mi
10150 E Hurst Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,849	$2.02	44d	9	1.45mi
2305 Dalewood Ln Bedford, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,975	$1.85	8d	1	1.47mi
3601 W Pipeline Rd Bedford, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,020	$1.46	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 376 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 370 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 368 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 361 DOM
14. 2025-06-04
    listed $175,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Sales price is subject to change without notice and not guaranteed. Pictures are for illustration purposes only. Color scheme such as paint, flooring, cabinets, backsplashes and countertops may vary. Beautiful home offers large living room with high ceilings, island kitchen, walk in pantry & stainless-steel appliances. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet & private bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can add charm and functionality to the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — A front porch can add charm and functionality to the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824060
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,086
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3316
• State rank: #193 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,677
• Household income: $72,661
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1361.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 31% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 271.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Listed $175,000 Zillow