1827 Tarver Dr · Blakely, GA 39823

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 374 Days on market

Built 1988 0.29 ac lot $77/sqft · 17% below area Est $145k · 17% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 374 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#476 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Early County (town): math 16% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #150 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Early County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $590 of equity ($830 loan paydown + $-240 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Early County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 374 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 374 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,125
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 S Central Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,642 (+5%)	6mo	$132,500	$81	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,358
• Equity at exit: $33,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $44,874
• Equity at exit: $39,505

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39823

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 374 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 373 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 372 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 371 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 369 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 365 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 364 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 363 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 361 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 359 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 358 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 357 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 356 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 355 DOM
16. 2025-12-20
    status Back On Market 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

17. 2025-12-08
    status Under Contract 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

18. 2025-12-03
    status Back On Market 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

19. 2025-11-30
    historical 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

20. 2025-07-16
    price $120,000 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

21. 2025-05-25
    listed $120,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

22. 2025-05-24
    listed $125,000 New 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    This four bedroom, two bath 1565 sq ft home is minutes from downtown Blakely. Perfect for first-time home buyer or investor. Ready for immediate occupancy. Contact an agent today for showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Early County
• NCES district ID: 1301920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $30,207
• Composite: 13.94/100
• National rank: #9478
• State rank: #150 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blakely

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #22306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blakely, GA
• Population (ZIP): 8,635

Population outlook (Early County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,375 people
• By 2030: 8,784 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 7,706 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 6,794 · -27.5%
• By 2075: 5,139 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 3,988 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 44% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Early

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 44.2% · R 55.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+8.1 2012: D+3.9 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.20%
• Current HPI: 172.576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-12-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-25 Listed $120,000 SWGABOR
• 2025-05-24 Listed $125,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · +73.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.