10315 Bluegill Way · San Antonio, TX 78224

$248,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot Est $381k · 35% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

The Siesta - This new home features a modern and low-maintenance design contained to a single level. Off the foyer are two secondary bedrooms and a convenient study, providing a secluded place to focus on important tasks throughout the week. The kitchen, dining room and family room share an open-concept floorplan, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. The owner's suite is nestled into a private corner at the back of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Modern design
• Private corner
• Covered patio

Tags

• MODERN DESIGN
• LOW MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE CORNER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,581 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,096
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10011 University Way	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,814 (-4%)	4mo	$364,000	$201	52
10015 University Way	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,634 (-14%)	11mo	$325,000	$199	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $110,961
• Equity at exit: $224,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $336,086
• Equity at exit: $483,750

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $201,655

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-241	+0% $-327	+5% $-413	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-399	+0% $-327	+5% $-256	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-264	base $-327	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10523 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.22mi
2026 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1383	$1,650	$1.19	6d	1	0.25mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	45d	1	0.29mi
2111 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.30mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.30mi
10723 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.32mi
10210 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1139	$1,460	$1.28	0d	1	0.32mi
10710 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.33mi
11327 Clearmine San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,650	$1.21	0d	2	0.33mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	45d	1	0.35mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	45d	1	0.36mi
2222 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	25d	1	0.36mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	45d	1	0.36mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	25d	1	0.37mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	25d	1	0.38mi
1347 Neria LOOP San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,699	$0.78	45d	1	0.38mi
10811 Soupe CV San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,995	$0.92	4d	1	0.38mi
10507 Padron Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	45d	1	0.39mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.40mi
2242 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.41mi
10611 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,735	$1.07	6d	1	0.43mi
10622 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,725	$1.06	6d	1	0.44mi
10542 Nye Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.48mi
10807 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.48mi
10610 Apple Pie Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	25d	1	0.48mi
10815 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	25d	1	0.49mi
10823 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.49mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	45d	1	0.49mi
10151 Asta Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,650	$1.02	14d	1	0.50mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.52mi
1442 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	45d	1	0.53mi
10119 Ana Hts San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	12d	1	0.54mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.54mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	6d	1	0.55mi
10135 Ana Hts San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,200	$1.13	0d	1	0.56mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.56mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	25d	1	0.58mi
10018 Ana Hts San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	18d	1	0.58mi
10107 Kersey Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1628	$1,695	$1.04	25d	1	0.58mi
1355 Neria Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,575	$1.24	45d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $248,999
3. 2026-04-09
   price $250,999
4. 2026-03-25
   listed $264,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$8,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $248,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $250,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Listed $264,999 LERA