3 Starfish Ct · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$390,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 $300/sqft · 16% below area Est $463k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Open House Saturday May 16th 11am-2pm and Sunday 12pm-3pm. Amazing opportunity in the Dolphin Cove community of Ponte Vedra Beach! Move right in or bring your vision for stylish updates! Huge backyard with a pond view. Roof replaced in 2017. Windows and plumbing have been updated as well. No HOA and a beautiful renovation currently being done to the neighborhood park around the corner.

Key facts

• Built 1980
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Back yard fencing; Pond / waterfront setting; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-unit laundry; Dishwasher; Dryer; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,061 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,096
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -15.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Starfish Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,300 (0%)	0mo	$417,000	$321	100
148 El Dorado Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (+5%)	2mo	$455,000	$334	80
141 Cabrillo Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-3%)	13mo	$475,000	$377	73
102 Dolphin Blvd E	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+10%)	5mo	$408,500	$286	71
138 Las Palmas Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (+3%)	16mo	$475,000	$354	71
175 Del Prado Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+9%)	11mo	$455,000	$322	66
172 Del Prado Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,160 (-11%)	6mo	$479,000	$413	64
181 Aruba Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-3%)	8mo	$390,000	$309	64
196 Del Prado Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,119 (-14%)	8mo	$470,000	$420	60
11 Bonita Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+2%)	11mo	$500,000	$379	52
13 Cobia St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+8%)	18mo	$455,000	$323	46
23 MacKeral St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (+14%)	17mo	$645,000	$437	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-33,908
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $54,637
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $866/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $343	+0% $233	+5% $122	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $107	+0% $233	+5% $358	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $332	base $233	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Vista Grande Dr Unit 1531275P Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1593	$13,483	$8.46	24d	1	0.15mi
26 Cobia St Unit 1531276P Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1646	$11,714	$7.12	24d	1	0.32mi
3110 Sea Hawk Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,700	$2.31	24d	1	0.55mi
2910 Sea Hawk Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,495	$1.72	15d	1	0.56mi
511 Pheasant Run Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1807	$3,495	$1.93	24d	1	0.96mi
1701 The Greens Way Jacksonville Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1127	$2,395	$2.12	5d	1	1.20mi
1655 The Greens Way Jacksonville Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1127	$2,300	$2.04	8d	3	1.24mi
3987 America Ave Jacksonville Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1753	$3,850	$2.20	18d	1	1.24mi
3652 Sanctuary Way S Jacksonville Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1771	$3,600	$2.03	24d	1	1.26mi
506 Cali Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$3,800	$2.32	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $390,000 Active 388-char remark
2. 1980-01-01
   soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $866 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,237 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,371/yr (+$198/mo · 273.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$866
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,053
• − Management: −$3,053
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $3,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+983.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $417,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $390,000 realMLS
• 1980-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $866 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.