33 Anderson Ave · Deferiet, NY 13626

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 1904 5,700 sqft lot Est $226k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home located in the heart of Deferiet. Great neighborhood only a few miles outside of Drum. This home has a nice open floor plan that allows you to be creative with the space. 1ST FLOOR-large living room, open kitchen, dining room, den and a full bath. 2ND FLOOR- 3 nice sized bedrooms. There is also a one car garage with access from the back alley. Perfect place to raise a family, and located in the Carthage School District. Motivated Seller. Will entertain all reasonable offers!!

Key facts

• 5,700 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1904

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#984 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carthage Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 348 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $120k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,700
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Anderson Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+4%)	1mo	$235,000	$148	84
53 Anderson Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,654 (+8%)	13mo	$206,400	$125	62
61 Anderson Ave	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-4%)	21mo	$239,000	$163	60
34015 State Route 3	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,752 (+15%)	16mo	$219,000	$125	38
34196 Jackson Ii Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+14%)	20mo	$439,000	$252	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $30,963
• Equity at exit: $54,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $87,309
• Equity at exit: $85,252

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13626

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $287	+0% $246	+5% $204	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $192	+0% $246	+5% $299	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $276	base $246	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   price $120,000
3. 2025-11-11
   listed $127,500 Active
4. 2015-03-25
   soldstatus $80,000 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Beautiful home located in the heart of Deferiet. Great neighborhood only a few miles outside of Drum. This home has a nice open floor plan that allows you to be creative with the space. 1ST FLOOR-large living room, open kitchen, dining room, den and a full bath. 2ND FLOOR- 3 nice sized bedrooms. There is also a one car garage with access from the back alley. Perfect place to raise a family, and located in the Carthage School District. Motivated Seller. Will entertain all reasonable offers!!

5. 2014-05-14
   listed $88,900 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Beautiful home located in the heart of Deferiet. Great neighborhood only a few miles outside of Drum. This home has a nice open floor plan that allows you to be creative with the space. 1ST FLOOR-large living room, open kitchen, dining room, den and a full bath. 2ND FLOOR- 3 nice sized bedrooms. There is also a one car garage with access from the back alley. Perfect place to raise a family, and located in the Carthage School District. Motivated Seller. Will entertain all reasonable offers!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$264
• After-tax cash flow: $2,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Deferiet

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #19218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deferiet, NY
• City population: 185
• Population (ZIP): 2,322

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 6% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 303.3172
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $120,000 CNYIS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $127,500 CNYIS
• 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CNYIS
• 2014-05-14 Listed $88,900 CNYIS