5438 Autumn Dr · Colonial Park, PA 17111

$225,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1983 1,742 sqft lot $135/sqft · 44% above area Est $232k · at est. $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained end-unit townhome offers an excellent opportunity for both investors and future owner-occupants. Currently tenant-occupied through January 2027, the property provides immediate, reliable cash flow with the option to move in and enjoy down the road. Built in 1983 and ideally located with easy access to I-83 and nearby shopping, convenience is at your doorstep. Inside, you’re welcomed by a bright foyer that opens into a spacious living room featuring durable vinyl wood plank flooring and abundant natural light. The main level also includes a separate dining room and a beautifully laid-out kitchen with ample counter space, an extended breakfast bar, additional dining area, and direct access to a large deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A powder room and coat closet complete the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a comfortable primary suite with its own full bath, vanity area, and ample closet space. The fully finished basement adds valuable living space, ideal for entertaining, a home office, or recreation. With just a few minor cosmetic updates, this property has strong upside potential—whether you’re looking to invest or create your future home.

Key facts

• $120 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($453/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Colonial Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#464 in PA, #4,237 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,221 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,861
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5436 Union Deposit Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,642 (-1%)	3mo	$330,000	$201	86
6117 Summit Pointe Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,738 (+5%)	2mo	$345,000	$199	57
1027 Oak Knoll Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,764 (+6%)	11mo	$330,000	$187	50
1432 Karen Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+11%)	12mo	$325,000	$177	42
1412 Ford Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+11%)	4mo	$290,000	$157	37
4847 Peterborough Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,796 (+8%)	14mo	$315,000	$175	36
1515 Nittany Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+14%)	9mo	$361,113	$191	30
1068 Twin Lakes Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+13%)	22mo	$377,500	$202	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,314
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,787
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17111

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4913 Wynnewood Rd Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,730	$1.76	43d	1	0.60mi
6226 Lehigh Ave Harrisburg, PA	4.0	4.0	2128	$2,975	$1.40	14d	1	1.01mi
821 Sequoia Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1200	$1,945	$1.62	14d	42	1.08mi
4810 Etta Rd Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	2118	$2,450	$1.16	14d	1	1.18mi
54 N 62nd St Unit 1 Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,750	$1.31	14d	1	1.41mi
303 Hamilton Cir Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,576	$1.44	14d	2	1.41mi
6550 Somerset St Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,250	$1.51	14d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

   This well-maintained end-unit townhome offers an excellent opportunity for both investors and future owner-occupants. Currently tenant-occupied through January 2027, the property provides immediate, reliable cash flow with the option to move in and enjoy down the road. Built in 1983 and ideally located with easy access to I-83 and nearby shopping, convenience is at your doorstep. Inside, you’re welcomed by a bright foyer that opens into a spacious living room featuring durable vinyl wood plank flooring and abundant natural light. The main level also includes a separate dining room and a beautifully laid-out kitchen with ample counter space, an extended breakfast bar, additional dining area, and direct access to a large deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A powder room and coat closet complete the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a comfortable primary suite with its own full bath, vanity area, and ample closet space. The fully finished basement adds valuable living space, ideal for entertaining, a home office, or recreation. With just a few minor cosmetic updates, this property has strong upside potential—whether you’re looking to invest or create your future home.

2. 2026-04-24
   listed $225,000 Active 1274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

   This well-maintained end-unit townhome offers an excellent opportunity for both investors and future owner-occupants. Currently tenant-occupied through January 2027, the property provides immediate, reliable cash flow with the option to move in and enjoy down the road. Built in 1983 and ideally located with easy access to I-83 and nearby shopping, convenience is at your doorstep. Inside, you’re welcomed by a bright foyer that opens into a spacious living room featuring durable vinyl wood plank flooring and abundant natural light. The main level also includes a separate dining room and a beautifully laid-out kitchen with ample counter space, an extended breakfast bar, additional dining area, and direct access to a large deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A powder room and coat closet complete the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a comfortable primary suite with its own full bath, vanity area, and ample closet space. The fully finished basement adds valuable living space, ideal for entertaining, a home office, or recreation. With just a few minor cosmetic updates, this property has strong upside potential—whether you’re looking to invest or create your future home.

3. 2026-04-21
   historical $225,000 1274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

   This well-maintained end-unit townhome offers an excellent opportunity for both investors and future owner-occupants. Currently tenant-occupied through January 2027, the property provides immediate, reliable cash flow with the option to move in and enjoy down the road. Built in 1983 and ideally located with easy access to I-83 and nearby shopping, convenience is at your doorstep. Inside, you’re welcomed by a bright foyer that opens into a spacious living room featuring durable vinyl wood plank flooring and abundant natural light. The main level also includes a separate dining room and a beautifully laid-out kitchen with ample counter space, an extended breakfast bar, additional dining area, and direct access to a large deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A powder room and coat closet complete the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a comfortable primary suite with its own full bath, vanity area, and ample closet space. The fully finished basement adds valuable living space, ideal for entertaining, a home office, or recreation. With just a few minor cosmetic updates, this property has strong upside potential—whether you’re looking to invest or create your future home.

4. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $185,000
5. 2021-05-07
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   Welcome home to this lovely 2-story end unit in Central Dauphin school district! Built in 1983, this property is well located with convenient access to 83 and shopping centers. Step inside to newly installed porcelain tile flooring and a foyer that opens up into the spacious living room, featuring tasteful vinyl wood planking and replete with natural light. The first floor boasts a separate dining room and stunning kitchen, equipped with plenty of counter space, extended breakfast bar, additional dining space and access to the large deck just outside. Great for entertaining! A powder room, with brand new flooring, and coat closet great for storage round out the offerings on the first floor. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, as well as the owner’s suite, complete with full bath, vanity area, and tons of closet space! Need more living space? The large basement is fully finished and perfect for indoor entertaining. With a few minor cosmetic updates, make this wonderful home yours! Schedule your tour today!

6. 2021-04-21
   status Pending 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   Welcome home to this lovely 2-story end unit in Central Dauphin school district! Built in 1983, this property is well located with convenient access to 83 and shopping centers. Step inside to newly installed porcelain tile flooring and a foyer that opens up into the spacious living room, featuring tasteful vinyl wood planking and replete with natural light. The first floor boasts a separate dining room and stunning kitchen, equipped with plenty of counter space, extended breakfast bar, additional dining space and access to the large deck just outside. Great for entertaining! A powder room, with brand new flooring, and coat closet great for storage round out the offerings on the first floor. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, as well as the owner’s suite, complete with full bath, vanity area, and tons of closet space! Need more living space? The large basement is fully finished and perfect for indoor entertaining. With a few minor cosmetic updates, make this wonderful home yours! Schedule your tour today!

7. 2021-04-16
   status Active 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   Welcome home to this lovely 2-story end unit in Central Dauphin school district! Built in 1983, this property is well located with convenient access to 83 and shopping centers. Step inside to newly installed porcelain tile flooring and a foyer that opens up into the spacious living room, featuring tasteful vinyl wood planking and replete with natural light. The first floor boasts a separate dining room and stunning kitchen, equipped with plenty of counter space, extended breakfast bar, additional dining space and access to the large deck just outside. Great for entertaining! A powder room, with brand new flooring, and coat closet great for storage round out the offerings on the first floor. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, as well as the owner’s suite, complete with full bath, vanity area, and tons of closet space! Need more living space? The large basement is fully finished and perfect for indoor entertaining. With a few minor cosmetic updates, make this wonderful home yours! Schedule your tour today!

8. 2021-04-16
   historical 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   Welcome home to this lovely 2-story end unit in Central Dauphin school district! Built in 1983, this property is well located with convenient access to 83 and shopping centers. Step inside to newly installed porcelain tile flooring and a foyer that opens up into the spacious living room, featuring tasteful vinyl wood planking and replete with natural light. The first floor boasts a separate dining room and stunning kitchen, equipped with plenty of counter space, extended breakfast bar, additional dining space and access to the large deck just outside. Great for entertaining! A powder room, with brand new flooring, and coat closet great for storage round out the offerings on the first floor. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, as well as the owner’s suite, complete with full bath, vanity area, and tons of closet space! Need more living space? The large basement is fully finished and perfect for indoor entertaining. With a few minor cosmetic updates, make this wonderful home yours! Schedule your tour today!

9. 2021-04-16
   listed $169,900 1053-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

   Welcome home to this lovely 2-story end unit in Central Dauphin school district! Built in 1983, this property is well located with convenient access to 83 and shopping centers. Step inside to newly installed porcelain tile flooring and a foyer that opens up into the spacious living room, featuring tasteful vinyl wood planking and replete with natural light. The first floor boasts a separate dining room and stunning kitchen, equipped with plenty of counter space, extended breakfast bar, additional dining space and access to the large deck just outside. Great for entertaining! A powder room, with brand new flooring, and coat closet great for storage round out the offerings on the first floor. Upstairs, you will find two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, as well as the owner’s suite, complete with full bath, vanity area, and tons of closet space! Need more living space? The large basement is fully finished and perfect for indoor entertaining. With a few minor cosmetic updates, make this wonderful home yours! Schedule your tour today!

10. 2003-07-18
    soldstatus $87,100
11. 2003-05-08
    listed $87,000
12. 1997-01-07
    soldstatus $90,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,343 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $1,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Colonial Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #4237

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,744
• Household income: $86,385
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 22% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · India, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.67%
• Current HPI: 236.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-16 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-18 Sold (MLS) $87,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-08 Listed $87,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,132 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.