Plan 2381 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$283,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 763 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Low-E windows * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Granite kitchen countertops * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 6-panel interior doors * Den * Spacious great room * Tankless water heater * Front porch * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 762 days

Tags

• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $283,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $377,566.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 763 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $248,589 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 763 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,566
• List price: $283,995
• Delta: -24.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18303 Walnut Canopy Way	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,429 (+2%)	3mo	$359,073	$148	86
18203 Sessile Oak Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,429 (+2%)	8mo	$324,995	$134	69
18235 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,381 (0%)	11mo	$321,499	$135	68
22442 Birch Bud Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,381 (0%)	10mo	$309,995	$130	66
22418 Birch Bud Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,429 (+2%)	10mo	$304,995	$126	64
18234 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,500 (+5%)	9mo	$324,995	$130	63
22411 Hawberry Blossom Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,458 (+3%)	12mo	$324,995	$132	63
22419 Hawberry Blossom Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (-6%)	9mo	$279,995	$125	61
21502 Rosehill Chruch Rd	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,679 (+12%)	0mo	$1,055,000	$394	56
18331 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,723 (+14%)	9mo	$379,900	$140	55
18902 Meadow Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,345 (-2%)	7mo	$340,000	$145	52
22427 Hawberry Blossom Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,124 (-11%)	12mo	$284,194	$134	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-109,537
• Equity at exit: $56,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-176,316
• Equity at exit: $32,645

Cash invested: $105,718 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $426,500 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,980
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,663/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,303

Max offer price $284,173

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-384	-5% $-515	+0% $-645	+5% $-776	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-744	+0% $-645	+5% $-547	+10% $-449
Rate	-1.0pp $-455	-0.5pp $-549	base $-645	+0.5pp $-743	+1.0pp $-843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,391
• Closing costs: $11,327
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	7d	1	0.34mi
18106 Zemira Ln Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2317	$3,290	$1.42	4d	1	0.86mi
22906 Ephesus Ave Tomball, TX	3.0	2.5	2562	$2,495	$0.97	31d	1	0.96mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	21d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $283,995 Active 763 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $283,995 Active 761 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $283,995 Active 760 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $283,995 Active 759 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $283,995 Active 758 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $283,995 Active 755 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $283,995 Active 753 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $283,995 Active 752 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $283,995 Active 750 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $283,995 Active 748 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $283,995 Active 747 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $283,995 Active 746 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $283,995 Active 745 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $283,995 Active 744 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,995 Active 742 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $283,995 Active 741 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $283,995 Active 740 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $283,995 Active 739 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $283,995 Active 738 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    price $283,995 Active 737 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,995 Active 737 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,995 Active 736 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $281,995 Active 735 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $281,995 Active 734 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $281,995 Active 733 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $281,995 Active 731 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $281,995 Active 730 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $281,995 Active 729 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $281,995 Active 728 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $281,995 Active 727 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $281,995 Active 726 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $281,995 Active 725 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $281,995 Active 724 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $281,995 Active 723 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $281,995 Active 722 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $281,995 Active 721 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $281,995 Active 720 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $281,995 Active 718 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $281,995 Active 715 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $281,995 Active 712 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $281,995 Active 711 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $281,995 Active 710 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $281,995 Active 709 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,995 Active 707 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,995 Active 706 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $281,995 Active 703 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $281,995 Active 702 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,995 Active 701 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,995 Active 698 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,995 Active 697 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,150
• − Property taxes: −$5,663
• − Insurance: −$1,888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − Depreciation: −$10,984
• Taxable loss: −$14,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,510
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and smart home integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds value for potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball Int C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $281,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $279,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $277,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $275,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $262,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $267,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $277,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $287,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $292,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $290,995 Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $300,995 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $310,995 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $315,995 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Listed $320,995 Zillow