238 Narcissus Ave S · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · Land · 155 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 2,999 sq ft of Total living space with a spacious master suite featuring walk-in closets and a tub. Designed in a modern luxury style, it includes tray ceilings, stainless steel appliances, tile flooring throughout, and a bright open concept living area with high ceilings. Impact windows and doors enhance safety and style. Located close to State Road 82. A must-see — the perfect place to call home!

Key facts

• Great location
• Walk-in closets
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IMPACT WINDOWS AND DOORS
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $375k implies a 2900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,391 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $155,968
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $478,752
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2476
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $281,660

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-515	+0% $-645	+5% $-775	+10% $-904
Rent	-10% $-840	-5% $-742	+0% $-645	+5% $-548	+10% $-450
Rate	-1.0pp $-456	-0.5pp $-550	base $-645	+0.5pp $-742	+1.0pp $-841

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 Randolph St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.23mi
327 Lester Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1577	$2,195	$1.39	3d	1	0.32mi
1226 Chrisholm St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,500	$1.38	3d	1	0.35mi
1228 Chrisholm St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,500	$1.38	3d	1	0.37mi
232 Fowler Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	0.58mi
1252 County St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,995	$1.27	25d	1	0.79mi
459 Lackey Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,825	$1.00	3d	1	0.99mi
18 Scott Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	3d	1	1.08mi
940 Belmont St E Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,850	$1.55	25d	1	1.11mi
1018 Kent St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	18d	1	1.16mi
947 Grant Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,145	$1.30	25d	1	1.21mi
321 Briggs Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,400	$1.01	25d	1	1.29mi
1144 Essex St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	21d	1	1.36mi
119 Wellington Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1822	$3,200	$1.76	3d	1	1.40mi
912 Anthony St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,890	$1.22	18d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-28
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 2023-01-04
   soldstatus $12,500
4. 2014-12-12
   soldstatus $6,500
5. 2010-06-03
   historical
6. 2010-03-03
   listed $8,000
7. 2005-07-28
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+792.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $375,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2014-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records
• 2010-06-03 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2010-03-03 Listed $8,000 MARMLS
• 2005-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $418 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.