408 Bay Oaks Dr · La Porte, TX 77571

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1950 9,500 sqft lot $117/sqft · 26% below area Est $134k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 125 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-561/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.4% in La Porte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#360 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• La Porte ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $99k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,799
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -26.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Pine Bluff St	0.32mi	2/1.0	878 (+4%)	16mo	$70,000	$80	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-18,940
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-20,005
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77571

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $90,736

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 McCabe Rd La Porte, TX	1.0–3.0	2.0	896	$1,345	$1.50	1d	3	0.53mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1846 La Porte, TX	1.0	1.0	785	$1,320	$1.68	15d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1162 La Porte, TX	1.0	1.0	885	$1,670	$1.89	5d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1888 La Porte, TX	2.0	2.0	876	$1,468	$1.68	44d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1868 La Porte, TX	2.0	2.0	876	$1,433	$1.64	3d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 424 La Porte, TX	2.0	2.0	876	$1,441	$1.64	5d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1846 La Porte, TX	1.0	1.0	885	$1,667	$1.88	3d	1	1.35mi
1831 Texas 146 Unit 1852 La Porte, TX	1.0	1.0	748	$1,342	$1.79	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-02-12
    listed $99,000 Active
15. 2025-10-16
    historical
16. 2025-10-07
    price $99,000
17. 2025-06-20
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2012-07-02
    soldstatus
19. 2012-06-28
    soldstatus
20. 2012-06-20
    historical
21. 2012-05-11
    listed $54,000
22. 2012-04-24
    soldstatus $57,005
23. 2009-06-26
    soldstatus
24. 2009-05-06
    historical
25. 2008-08-31
    listed $47,526
26. 1997-09-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$5,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $-120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Porte ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826190
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4151
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Porte

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #7754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Porte, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 38,543
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,543
• Household income: $81,850
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1176.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.81%
• Current HPI: 255.0768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2012-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-11 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2012-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $57,005 Public Records
• 2009-06-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-31 Listed $47,526 HARMLS
• 1997-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,202 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.