39 Crocus Ln Unit B · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$129,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

$106/sqft · 13% below area Est $149k · 13% under $379/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Popular, charming and affordable this 2 Bdrms, 1.5 Baths 'Sherwood' model located desirable Crestwood Village Co-Op 2 -- an active adult community! * Unit needs some TLC but incl updates/upgrades and will be freshly painted * NEWER Mster Bath w/handicap-friendly one-piece walk-in Tub * SS appl pkg * Kitchen has cut-out opening to the dining/living combo * Laundry rm (Newer W+D), Bright SUN-ROOM, 1-car garage, Alum stairs to high, spacious attic * NEWER C/A Sys (2023) * Insulated crawl space * short stroll to the clubhouse, and shopping * Harry Wright Lake is nearby to bring the grandkids...beaches, trails, GSP and Atlantic City all within striking distance! Affordable HOA ($379 pm) includes property taxes! Immediate occupancy possible. Cash only, no rentals, HOA approval req

Key facts

• Beaches trails
• Newer c a sys
• Bright sun-room

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLS
• BRIGHT SUN-ROOM
• NEWER C A SYS
• SHORT WALK TO CLUBHOUSE
• HARRY WRIGHT LAKE NEARBY
• BEACHES TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $129k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,652
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -13.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1B Myrtle Pl	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,220 (0%)	5mo	$140,000	$115	80
2 Liberty Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,285 (+5%)	1mo	$165,000	$128	64
553 Petunia Ln N	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-7%)	6mo	$311,500	$273	63
701 Orchid St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-7%)	1mo	$300,000	$263	61
166 Morning Glory Ln N	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,346 (+10%)	5mo	$275,000	$204	61
519 Petunia Ln N	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-7%)	5mo	$275,000	$241	60
1 Morning Glory Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,312 (+8%)	0mo	$305,000	$232	60
550 Petunia Ln N	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,346 (+10%)	6mo	$360,000	$267	58
6 N Chestnut Ave	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,192 (-2%)	5mo	$190,000	$159	58
71 Morning Glory Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,380 (+13%)	1mo	$284,450	$206	54
9 Potomac Ln Unit A	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,113 (-9%)	2mo	$112,999	$102	54
636 Petunia Ln S	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,312 (+8%)	5mo	$335,000	$255	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,926
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $33,965
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$379
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	4d	1	0.54mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	43d	1	0.79mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	0.81mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	24d	1	1.23mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $379 · $4,548/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    price $129,000 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Popular, charming and affordable this 2 Bdrms, 1.5 Baths 'Sherwood' model located desirable Crestwood Village Co-Op 2 -- an active adult community! * Unit needs some TLC but incl updates/upgrades and will be freshly painted * NEWER Mster Bath w/handicap-friendly one-piece walk-in Tub * SS appl pkg * Kitchen has cut-out opening to the dining/living combo * Laundry rm (Newer W+D), Bright SUN-ROOM, 1-car garage, Alum stairs to high, spacious attic * NEWER C/A Sys (2023) * Insulated crawl space * short stroll to the clubhouse, and shopping * Harry Wright Lake is nearby to bring the grandkids...beaches, trails, GSP and Atlantic City all within striking distance! Affordable HOA ($379 pm) includes property taxes! Immediate occupancy possible. Cash only, no rentals, HOA approval req

15. 2026-01-30
    listed $125,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Popular, charming and affordable this 2 Bdrms, 1.5 Baths 'Sherwood' model located desirable Crestwood Village Co-Op 2 -- an active adult community! * Unit needs some TLC but incl updates/upgrades and will be freshly painted * NEWER Mster Bath w/handicap-friendly one-piece walk-in Tub * SS appl pkg * Kitchen has cut-out opening to the dining/living combo * Laundry rm (Newer W+D), Bright SUN-ROOM, 1-car garage, Alum stairs to high, spacious attic * NEWER C/A Sys (2023) * Insulated crawl space * short stroll to the clubhouse, and shopping * Harry Wright Lake is nearby to bring the grandkids...beaches, trails, GSP and Atlantic City all within striking distance! Affordable HOA ($379 pm) includes property taxes! Immediate occupancy possible. Cash only, no rentals, HOA approval req

16. 2019-10-22
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    55 + Adult Community Crestwood Village 2 Cash only sale Move right in! Freshly painted 2 Bedroom, 1 and a half bath Sherwood model. Refinished hardwood floors,Central air, newer washer/dryer. Newer windows and appliances. Dishwasher, new laminate in kitchen, and new carpet on porch/den. Walking distance to clubhouse.

17. 2019-09-24
    status Pending 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    55 + Adult Community Crestwood Village 2 Cash only sale Move right in! Freshly painted 2 Bedroom, 1 and a half bath Sherwood model. Refinished hardwood floors,Central air, newer washer/dryer. Newer windows and appliances. Dishwasher, new laminate in kitchen, and new carpet on porch/den. Walking distance to clubhouse.

18. 2019-08-29
    price $59,900 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    55 + Adult Community Crestwood Village 2 Cash only sale Move right in! Freshly painted 2 Bedroom, 1 and a half bath Sherwood model. Refinished hardwood floors,Central air, newer washer/dryer. Newer windows and appliances. Dishwasher, new laminate in kitchen, and new carpet on porch/den. Walking distance to clubhouse.

19. 2019-07-23
    price $65,000 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    55 + Adult Community Crestwood Village 2 Cash only sale Move right in! Freshly painted 2 Bedroom, 1 and a half bath Sherwood model. Refinished hardwood floors,Central air, newer washer/dryer. Newer windows and appliances. Dishwasher, new laminate in kitchen, and new carpet on porch/den. Walking distance to clubhouse.

20. 2019-06-19
    listed $69,500 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    55 + Adult Community Crestwood Village 2 Cash only sale Move right in! Freshly painted 2 Bedroom, 1 and a half bath Sherwood model. Refinished hardwood floors,Central air, newer washer/dryer. Newer windows and appliances. Dishwasher, new laminate in kitchen, and new carpet on porch/den. Walking distance to clubhouse.

21. 1999-05-04
    soldstatus $45,500
22. 1999-01-15
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − HOA: −$4,548
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,825
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $3,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+160.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $129,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $125,000 MOMLS
• 2019-10-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MOMLS
• 2019-09-24 Pending — MOMLS
• 2019-08-29 Price Changed $59,900 MOMLS
• 2019-07-23 Price Changed $65,000 MOMLS
• 2019-06-19 Listed $69,500 MOMLS
• 1999-05-04 Sold (MLS) $45,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-01-15 Listed $49,500 BRIGHT MLS