Baja Plan · San Antonio, TX 78223

$156,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 168 days

🏗️ New construction. The $156,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,407.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $157k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); Legacy Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,137 students, 58% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 397 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,407
• List price: $156,999
• Delta: -39.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4975 Mala Vida	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+5%)	8mo	$259,900	$207	77
4958 Don Julio	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+12%)	2mo	$259,990	$196	70
8433 Roadrunner Psge	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+8%)	10mo	$263,990	$205	67
5039 Agave Blue Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+9%)	11mo	$264,990	$205	59
5602 Screech Owl Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	0mo	$182,499	$144	55
5702 Screech Owl Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	0mo	$184,999	$146	53
8550 Redhawk Loop	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+13%)	12mo	$276,834	$206	47
8938 Caracara Crst	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	9mo	$192,999	$152	45
8910 Caracara Crst	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	9mo	$195,999	$155	45
8806 Caracara Crst	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	10mo	$199,999	$158	44
5215 Falcon Vly	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+15%)	13mo	$270,040	$198	44
8719 Caracara Crst	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-5%)	13mo	$179,256	$159	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-77,702
• Equity at exit: $38,977

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-125,802
• Equity at exit: $22,602

Cash invested: $73,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.9 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,900 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 289 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 397
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,371
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,921/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $192,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-388	+0% $-478	+5% $-568	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-544	+0% $-478	+5% $-412	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-346	-0.5pp $-411	base $-478	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,352
• Closing costs: $7,842
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7814 Annex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.72mi
8807 Osprey Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	18d	1	0.79mi
7722 Blue Gulf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,575	$1.08	73d	1	0.84mi
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	71d	1	0.87mi
8824 Broad Wing Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,775	$1.42	28d	1	0.87mi
8824 Broad Wing Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	9d	1	0.87mi
7246 Meadow Acres San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,420	$0.98	34d	1	0.91mi
10348 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,425	$1.15	24d	1	1.47mi
3618 Booker Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	93d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $156,999 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $156,999 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $156,999 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $156,999 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $156,999 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $156,999 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $156,999 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $156,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $156,999 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $157,999 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $157,999 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $157,999 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $157,999 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $157,999 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $157,999 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $157,999 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $157,999 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $157,999 Active 145 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $157,999 Active 144 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $157,999 Active 143 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $157,999 Active 142 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    price $157,999 Active 141 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $158,999 Active 141 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $158,999 Active 140 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $158,999 Active 139 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $158,999 Active 137 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $158,999 Active 136 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $158,999 Active 135 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $158,999 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $158,999 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $158,999 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $158,999 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $158,999 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $158,999 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $158,999 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $158,999 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $158,999 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $158,999 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $158,999 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $158,999 Active 118 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $158,999 Active 117 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $158,999 Active 116 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $158,999 Active 115 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $158,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $158,999 Active 109 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,999 Active 108 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,999 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $158,999 Active 104 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,999 Active 103 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $158,999 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,921
• − Insurance: −$1,307
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$7,605
• Taxable loss: −$10,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,945–$17,835 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems, and is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing the home's value. ↑
• Both Update landscaping — Fresh landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Rental Install smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract renters who value energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harmony El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 2,336,851 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $159,999 Zillow