10309 Altair Dr · Waco, TX 76708

$300,530

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition Est $336k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into the incredible Texas Cali floorplan at Eagles Landing in China Spring, Texas. The 4 bedroom, 2-bathroom has a spacious 1,796 approximate square footage that is perfect as your new home. Entertain in the large, open space living room or gather in the beautifully designed kitchen. The kitchen features flat panel birch cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. Or enjoy nature from under the backyard covered patio. You'll also find three cozy carpeted secondary bedrooms with easy access to the secondary bathroom. The laundry room is also centrally located for convenience. Retreat to the luxurious primary bedroom, where you'll find the attached primary bathroom wi

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $300,530

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Spec new construction — Texas Cali plan
• Exterior features: Address: 10309 Altair Dr, Waco, TX 76708

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,796 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $301k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,244 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,852
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10616 Whitney Trce	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-0%)	4mo	$329,999	$184	75
5807 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-1%)	6mo	$322,090	$181	74
10517 Rayburn Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,851 (+3%)	5mo	$349,900	$189	72
5444 Zavalla Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (+8%)	2mo	$399,900	$207	63
5813 Foggy Lagoon Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	6mo	$301,065	$192	59
10601 T Bury Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,683 (-6%)	7mo	$295,000	$175	59
5409 Black Horse Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (+7%)	4mo	$389,990	$203	56
5605 Beckon Fls	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,953 (+9%)	4mo	$323,420	$166	55
10516 T Bury	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,028 (+13%)	4mo	$379,900	$187	49
11001 Tree Lake Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (+10%)	6mo	$385,000	$194	48
11225 Raider Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (-6%)	6mo	$265,000	$156	46
11204 Echo Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-12%)	3mo	$279,900	$177	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,680
• Equity at exit: $44,810

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-97,326
• Equity at exit: $25,984

Cash invested: $84,148 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76708

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,508/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,629

Max offer price $278,063

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,132
• Closing costs: $9,016
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Altair Dr Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.13mi
5516 Pinery Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,600	$1.22	13d	1	0.66mi
10220 Lilac Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,530 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,530 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,530 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,530 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,530 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,530 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,530 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,530 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,530 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,530 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,530 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,530 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,530 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,530 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,834
• − Property taxes: −$4,508
• − Insurance: −$1,503
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − Depreciation: −$8,743
• Taxable loss: −$7,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and systems. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a good condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof footprint suggests potential issues that need inspection.
• Major exterior — No visible details in the satellite image to assess exterior condition.
• Major flooring — No interior photos available to assess flooring condition.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior photos available to assess wall condition or paint.
• Major systems — No interior photos available to assess HVAC or mechanical systems.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof inspection and repair — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value by improving its appearance and reducing maintenance costs.
• Both exterior landscaping and painting — A fresh coat of paint and landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both interior painting and updates — Fresh paint and updated decor can make the interior more appealing and increase the home's value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical system inspection and repair — A functional HVAC system is crucial for both comfort and energy efficiency, which can positively impact both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof footprint suggests potential issues that need inspection.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible details in the satellite image to assess exterior condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No interior photos available to assess flooring condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior photos available to assess wall condition or paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No interior photos available to assess HVAC or mechanical systems.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof inspection and repair — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value by improving its appearance and reducing maintenance costs. ↑
• Both exterior landscaping and painting — A fresh coat of paint and landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both interior painting and updates — Fresh paint and updated decor can make the interior more appealing and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical system inspection and repair — A functional HVAC system is crucial for both comfort and energy efficiency, which can positively impact both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,790
• Household income: $68,856
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Black 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.80%
• Current HPI: 218.9643
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B