5160 Avery St SW · Covington, GA 30014

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1951 3,920 sqft lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting home in a convenient Covington location, offering a comfortable blend of space, functionality, and everyday livability. Step inside to find a bright family room that flows easily into an eat-in kitchen designed for practical cooking and gathering. The bedrooms provide flexible space for rest, work, or hobbies, while the layout supports a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, the lot offers room to relax, garden, or simply enjoy the natural surroundings. With close proximity to local shops, dining, parks, and major roadways, this property combines accessibility with a peaceful neighborhood feel. A great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your vision.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $135k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.07%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,607
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -4.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5166 Avery St SW	0.01mi	2/1.0	722 (+4%)	7mo	$70,000	$97	87
715 Cannon St	0.68mi	2/1.0	700 (+1%)	4mo	$130,000	$186	64
3110 Emory St	0.52mi	2/1.0	800 (+15%)	7mo	$150,000	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,423
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $10,933
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,221/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7900 Kaplan LN Covington, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,959	$1.87	5d	68	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $135,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting home in a convenient Covington location, offering a comfortable blend of space, functionality, and everyday livability. Step inside to find a bright family room that flows easily into an eat-in kitchen designed for practical cooking and gathering. The bedrooms provide flexible space for rest, work, or hobbies, while the layout supports a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, the lot offers room to relax, garden, or simply enjoy the natural surroundings. With close proximity to local shops, dining, parks, and major roadways, this property combines accessibility with a peaceful neighborhood feel. A great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your vision.

16. 2026-04-11
    listed $135,000 New 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting home in a convenient Covington location, offering a comfortable blend of space, functionality, and everyday livability. Step inside to find a bright family room that flows easily into an eat-in kitchen designed for practical cooking and gathering. The bedrooms provide flexible space for rest, work, or hobbies, while the layout supports a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, the lot offers room to relax, garden, or simply enjoy the natural surroundings. With close proximity to local shops, dining, parks, and major roadways, this property combines accessibility with a peaceful neighborhood feel. A great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your vision.

17. 2026-04-11
    historical $135,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting home in a convenient Covington location, offering a comfortable blend of space, functionality, and everyday livability. Step inside to find a bright family room that flows easily into an eat-in kitchen designed for practical cooking and gathering. The bedrooms provide flexible space for rest, work, or hobbies, while the layout supports a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, the lot offers room to relax, garden, or simply enjoy the natural surroundings. With close proximity to local shops, dining, parks, and major roadways, this property combines accessibility with a peaceful neighborhood feel. A great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your vision.

18. 2026-04-11
    historical $135,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting home in a convenient Covington location, offering a comfortable blend of space, functionality, and everyday livability. Step inside to find a bright family room that flows easily into an eat-in kitchen designed for practical cooking and gathering. The bedrooms provide flexible space for rest, work, or hobbies, while the layout supports a variety of lifestyle needs. Outside, the lot offers room to relax, garden, or simply enjoy the natural surroundings. With close proximity to local shops, dining, parks, and major roadways, this property combines accessibility with a peaceful neighborhood feel. A great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your vision.

19. 2026-04-06
    status Back On Market
20. 2026-04-06
    historical
21. 2026-03-05
    status Under Contract
22. 2025-12-04
    listed $135,000 New
23. 2025-09-30
    historical
24. 2025-09-30
    historical
25. 2025-08-11
    status Price Change
26. 2025-08-11
    status Active
27. 2025-08-11
    price $135,000
28. 2025-08-11
    price $135,000
29. 2025-08-07
    status Under Contract
30. 2025-08-07
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2025-06-26
    status Price Change
32. 2025-06-26
    price $140,000
33. 2025-06-26
    price $140,000
34. 2025-06-26
    status Active
35. 2025-06-12
    historical On Hold
36. 2025-05-17
    price $120,000
37. 2025-05-17
    price $120,000
38. 2025-04-16
    price $130,000
39. 2025-03-29
    listed $140,000 Active
40. 2025-03-20
    historical
41. 2025-03-16
    listed $140,000 New
42. 2025-02-26
    historical
43. 2025-02-26
    historical
44. 2024-08-26
    listed $125,000 New
45. 2024-08-26
    listed $125,000 Active
46. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus $75,900
47. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $75,900 Closed
48. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $75,900 Sold
49. 2022-07-01
    status Under Contract
50. 2022-07-01
    status Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,221
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$507
• After-tax cash flow: $3,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, GA
• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+864.3% since first listed

64 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $135,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon $135,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon $135,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-08-11 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $135,000 FMLS
• 2025-08-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-08-07 Contingent — FMLS
• 2025-06-26 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $140,000 FMLS
• 2025-06-26 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-06-12 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $120,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $130,000 GAMLS
• 2025-03-29 Listed $140,000 FMLS
• 2025-03-20 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2025-03-16 Listed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $125,000 FMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2022-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) $75,900 GAMLS
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) $75,900 FMLS
• 2022-07-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-07-01 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-06-14 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-06-08 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-06-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-06-02 Price Changed $77,900 FMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $77,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-18 Relisted — FMLS
• 2022-05-18 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-05-16 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-05-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 FMLS
• 2022-05-11 Price Changed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2022-04-04 Listed $84,900 FMLS
• 2022-04-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-03-08 Price Changed $84,900 GAMLS
• 2022-02-15 Price Changed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2022-01-21 Price Changed $92,900 GAMLS
• 2021-12-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-12-19 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-12-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-12-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-11-03 Price Changed $96,900 GAMLS
• 2021-10-07 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2021-09-16 Listed $104,900 GAMLS
• 2021-09-16 Listed $96,900 GAMLS
• 2021-09-16 Listed $84,900 GAMLS
• 2021-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-23 Price Changed $14,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,221 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.