512 SW Berry Lake Rd #21 · Port Orchard, WA 98367

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $140/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW bright and open home located in the pride of ownership 55+ community of Berry Lake Manor. Great location close to freeway and amenities. Home features 1,248 sf, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large living room, kitchen with island and pantry, large master with its own private bath and walk-in closet. Don't forget the front porch too. Park rent only $825, seller pays sales tax and providing an one year basic warranty along with the remaining new home warranty. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2025
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.0% in Port Orchard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#110 in WA, #2,167 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $175k implies a 1196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.68%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,211
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -51.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 SW Berry Lake Rd #21	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$172,000	$138	100
270 Granat St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	11mo	$406,000	$313	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,671
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $42,399
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98367

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2250 Sidney Ave Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,625	$2.32	43d	4	0.30mi
4999 Sidney Rd SW Port Orchard, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,549	$2.65	13d	21	0.55mi
1800 Sidney Ave Port Orchard, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,222	$2.56	13d	13	0.85mi
414 SW Hayworth Dr Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,930	$2.33	13d	6	0.94mi
240 Poplar St Port Orchard, WA	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,995	$1.95	44d	1	0.94mi
1491 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 308 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,295	$2.29	13d	1	1.01mi
1491 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 206 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,195	$2.19	21d	1	1.01mi
1481 SE Blueberry Rd Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,295	$2.71	43d	11	1.01mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 307 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	930	$2,175	$2.34	43d	1	1.05mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 108 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,175	$2.65	43d	1	1.05mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 305 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	930	$2,150	$2.31	43d	1	1.05mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 107 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	930	$2,125	$2.28	43d	1	1.05mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 106 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,150	$2.62	43d	1	1.05mi
1511 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 104 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,150	$2.62	43d	1	1.05mi
1511 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 301 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	880	$2,175	$2.47	43d	1	1.05mi
1329 Sherman Ave Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$2,100	$2.30	43d	1	1.32mi
1324 Garrison Ave Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,000	$2.31	21d	1	1.36mi
2843 Harold Dr SE Unit B Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,725	$1.64	21d	1	1.38mi
515 Forest Park St Port Orchard, WA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,650	$2.39	13d	1	1.45mi
2192 SE Sedgwick Rd Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$2,450	$3.31	13d	22	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $174,900 Active
3. 2003-08-22
   soldstatus $13,500
4. 2003-07-12
   listed $15,499

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $4,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $6,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand-new mobile home in Berry Lake Manor is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, clean bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters, especially in a community setting like Berry Lake Manor.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters, especially in a community setting like Berry Lake Manor. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Orchard

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2167

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• City population: 68,721
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,756
• Household income: $115,482
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 595.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.02%
• Current HPI: 351.671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1028.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $174,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $13,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-12 Listed $15,499 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid