Concord Plan · Connerton, FL 34638

$397,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Boasting two stories, the Concord is the largest single-family home in this collection. The first floor features a modern design with an open kitchen, living room and dining room, along with a versatile bedroom ideal for overnight guests. The second floor is home to four bedrooms, an adaptable loft and the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Adaptable loft
• Versatile bedroom
• Open kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORIES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• ADAPTABLE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Concord Plan, Land O Lakes, FL 34638; Status: Active; Listing last modified: 2026-05-24
• Financial info: Listed for $395,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan home
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,580

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is Concord (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $397,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,020.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $397k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $356,549 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,020
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17577 Acorn Drop Rd	0.27mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	1mo	$433,990	$167	80
17538 Happytrails St	0.32mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	9mo	$417,810	$162	77
17607 Acorn Drop Rd	0.30mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	3mo	$429,990	$165	77
17504 Shirewood Way	0.35mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	10mo	$442,900	$172	76
17645 Acorn Drop Rd	0.34mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	6mo	$430,990	$165	73
17835 Acorn Drop Rd	0.29mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (-5%)	1mo	$409,990	$167	72
17685 Acorn Drop Rd	0.37mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	7mo	$439,990	$169	70
17766 Acorn Drop Rd	0.36mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (-5%)	3mo	$439,990	$179	68
17589 Happytrails St	0.32mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	10mo	$396,900	$166	57
17512 Happytrails St	0.36mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	9mo	$415,000	$174	56
17548 Pleasantview Blvd	0.15mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	8mo	$410,450	$185	56
17518 Happytrails St	0.35mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	9mo	$399,900	$181	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-93,564
• Equity at exit: $65,012

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-137,752
• Equity at exit: $37,699

Cash invested: $122,086 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$545 /mo · $6,540/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,814

Max offer price $407,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $-46	+0% $-196	+5% $-347	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-337	+0% $-196	+5% $-56	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-86	base $-196	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,005
• Closing costs: $13,081
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10497 Farm Hill Ave Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	3561	$3,500	$0.98	0d	1	0.66mi
10583 Gentle Rain Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$3,450	$1.41	26d	1	0.78mi
10583 Gentle Rain Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$3,450	$1.41	4d	1	0.78mi
10225 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	4.0	3021	$3,700	$1.22	19d	1	0.93mi
9654 Jasmine Brook Cir Land O Lakes, FL	6.0	3.0	3433	$3,350	$0.98	19d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $397,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $397,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $396,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $396,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $395,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $395,800 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,600 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,600 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $395,600 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $395,500 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,400 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,400 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $395,400 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,200 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $395,200 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,100 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,424
• − Property taxes: −$6,540
• − Insurance: −$2,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,423
• − Management: −$3,423
• − Depreciation: −$12,684
• Taxable loss: −$9,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,373
• After-tax cash flow: $15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Concord Plan home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior painting and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Rental Bathroom vanity lighting — Improves ambiance and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Rental Bathroom vanity lighting — Improves ambiance and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B