6404 Pregonero Ln · Houston, TX 77048

$274,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,793 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 2,772 sqft lot $121/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With immaculate precision and craftsmanship, 6404 Pregonero Lane offers the 'Canary' plan in the pre-construction stage. With 1662 sq ft of living space, three bedrooms, and a sizable flex space. Recessed lighting is combined with oversized windows, allowing the easy flow of natural light. A well-executed kitchen offers a sizable granite island. With a gray mosaic tile backsplash. The utility room and a well-executed flex space are central to all bedrooms atop the stair landing. The grand owner's escape offers his & her closets, with a generous soaking tub and a separate shower. Two secondary bedrooms share a jack & jill style bath and round out this space. Thomas Homes is locat

Key facts

• 2,772 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Curbs in community
• HOA & community: Association: Beacon Residential Management; Gated community; Annual association fee covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Living area of approximately 1,662; Builder: AGIC
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Private yard; Subdivision location; Backs to greenbelt/park; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Office (Second level)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $274,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,045.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,992 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,045
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -1.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6408 Pregonero Ln	0.01mi	3/3.5	1,971 (+10%)	3mo	$319,900	$162	76
6715 Cortenridge Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-5%)	7mo	$269,000	$158	68
6518 Macroom Meadows Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,656 (-8%)	6mo	$254,950	$154	66
6534 Brimridge Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-10%)	5mo	$262,000	$163	64
6121 Perth St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+4%)	7mo	$229,999	$124	61
13323 Ardery Meadow Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (+7%)	2mo	$289,000	$151	60
6508 Macroom Meadows Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-13%)	3mo	$240,000	$153	59
13315 Colina Meadows Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,636 (-9%)	6mo	$245,000	$150	57
6418 Macroom Meadows Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-14%)	8mo	$234,900	$153	55
13309 Myrtle Meadows Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,029 (+13%)	1mo	$265,000	$131	54
6734 Brimridge Ln	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,528 (-15%)	4mo	$260,900	$171	53
6730 Dayridge Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	7mo	$259,900	$169	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $8,511
• Equity at exit: $119,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $55,332
• Equity at exit: $180,101

Cash invested: $78,413 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,469
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,011/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$121
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $235,871

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,011
• Closing costs: $8,401
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6450 Dayridge Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,820	$1.29	18d	1	0.38mi
6543 Castle Loch Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	15d	1	0.47mi
5919 Allison Rd Unit B Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,850	$1.28	43d	1	0.68mi
14220 S Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,431	$1.31	10d	12	0.87mi
10647 Cashew Run Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $121 · $1,452/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $274,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $278,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $278,900 752-char remark
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $288,900 Active 752-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    historical
15. 2026-01-19
    price $288,900
16. 2026-01-05
    listed $299,900 Active
17. 2026-01-05
    historical
18. 2025-10-01
    listed $299,900 Active
19. 2025-09-23
    historical
20. 2025-08-28
    listed $269,900 Active
21. 2025-08-28
    historical
22. 2025-08-28
    listed $269,900 Active
23. 2025-08-27
    historical
24. 2025-03-11
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,020/yr (+$335/mo · 397.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,687
• − Property taxes: −$1,011
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$8,147
• Taxable loss: −$8,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $278,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $288,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $288,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $269,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+40.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,011 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.