137 Road 5714 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$204,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Land · 171 Days on market

Built 2026 $114/sqft · 12% above area Est $183k · 12% over $10/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 171 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,265
• List price: $204,990
• Delta: 15.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,691
• Equity at exit: $30,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $29,754
• Equity at exit: $17,724

Cash invested: $57,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,572

Max offer price $204,990

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,248
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	13d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,990 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $204,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,990 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,990 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,990 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,990 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,990 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,990 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,990 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,990 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,990 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,990 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $219,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

16. 2026-04-22
    price $221,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

17. 2026-04-20
    status Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

18. 2026-03-23
    status Pending 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

19. 2026-03-11
    price $224,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

20. 2026-03-04
    price $248,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

21. 2026-02-27
    price $245,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

22. 2026-02-12
    price $248,990 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

23. 2025-12-01
    listed $249,988 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    MLS# 76258194 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,751 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,894/yr (+$241/mo · 337.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,963
• Taxable income: $915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$220
• After-tax cash flow: $4,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $221,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $249,988 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.