Alyssa Plan · Midland, TX 79705

$292,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT ENTRYWAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN PENINSULA

🏗️ New construction. The $292,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,106.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($436/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Fasken El (math 45% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 886 students, 46% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,796 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,106
• List price: $292,950
• Delta: 0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Brand Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-6%)	10mo	$310,000	$187	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,125
• Equity at exit: $43,554

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,687
• Equity at exit: $25,256

Cash invested: $81,790 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,382/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $292,106

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $137	+0% $36	+5% $-65	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-66	+0% $36	+5% $139	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $111	base $36	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,026
• Closing costs: $8,763
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	0.37mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	22d	1	0.42mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	0.46mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	0.48mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	22d	1	0.48mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	15d	1	0.51mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	0.54mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	0.67mi
1341 Loess St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,795	$1.72	45d	1	0.69mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	22d	1	0.69mi
1115 Overshine Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	15d	1	0.69mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.71mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	45d	1	0.74mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	0.75mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	45d	1	0.77mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	15d	1	0.77mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	0.78mi
1325 Hogback Way Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	45d	1	0.78mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	45d	1	0.79mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	22d	1	0.79mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	0.80mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	22d	1	0.80mi
1301 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	22d	1	0.81mi
1336 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,899	$1.52	45d	1	0.82mi
1801 Chuck Wagon Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$3,100	$1.35	15d	1	0.83mi
1348 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.83mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	22d	1	0.84mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	45d	1	0.84mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	0.84mi
1341 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	22d	1	0.85mi
1416 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1933	$3,150	$1.63	15d	1	0.85mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	15d	1	0.86mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	0.90mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	0.93mi
1909 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2577	$3,300	$1.28	45d	1	0.94mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.04mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	15d	1	1.12mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	22d	1	1.14mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	15d	1	1.19mi
107 Mockingbird Ln Unit 105 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $292,950 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $292,950 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $292,950 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $292,950 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $292,950 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,950 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $292,950 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,950 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $292,950 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $292,950 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $292,950 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $292,950 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,950 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,950 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $292,950 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $292,950 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $292,950 Active 198 DOM
18. 2025-11-13
    listed $292,950 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Our Alyssa floor plan offers a warm and inviting atmosphere for all of life's moments to unfold!The Alyssa floor plan features:Brick exterior and covered front entrywayLuxury vinyl plank flooring in the home's common areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePremium plumbing and lighting fixturesSecluded master suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, his and hers vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio * Fireplace not included in floor plan but available as an upgrade. Only available on new build homes in Lubbock, Midland, and Odessa.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,362
• − Property taxes: −$4,382
• − Insurance: −$1,461
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$8,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both Add a fireplace — Can increase both resale and rental value, especially in colder climates.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Add a fireplace — Can increase both resale and rental value, especially in colder climates. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listed $292,950 Zillow