Kimbell Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$282,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-5 Bedrooms | 2-3 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,960 Sq. Ft. Designed with intention and built for connection, the Kimbell offers a bright, open single-story layout that makes everyday living feel effortless and inviting. From the welcoming foyer, you're drawn into the heart of the home where the kitchen, casual dining area, and great room flow together in one wide, comfortable space, perfect for quiet weeknights or lively gatherings. The kitchen features a central island, generous pantry storage, and clear sightlines to the main living area, while the covered patio just beyond creates an easy extension for outdoor relaxing or entertaining and can be extended for even more space. The primary suite is thoughtfully tucked along the rear of the home for added privacy, offering a peaceful retreat with a spacious bath, large walk-in closet, and options such as an extended closet, shower seat, or optional soaking tub. Three secondary bedrooms are grouped toward the front of the home near a shared full bath, creating a comfortable and functional layout for family members or guests. A central flex room adds versatility and may serve as a study, creative workspace, or convert into an optional fifth bedroom with a third bath for expanded living needs. With its open gathering spaces, private bedroom retreat, and flexible design options, the Kimbell adapts beautifully to every stage of life, offering comfort, functionality, and an easy, welcoming flow throughout.

Key facts

• Casual dining area
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,322.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-719 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,204 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.38%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,322
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: -13.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32238 River Birch Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,938 (-1%)	1mo	$249,000	$128	91
21410 Blue Oak Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-6%)	0mo	$272,000	$148	84
32306 Tallow Creek Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,009 (+2%)	1mo	$295,999	$147	80
32307 Mimosa Ridge Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (+4%)	1mo	$329,373	$161	76
21910 Iris Colony Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,160 (+10%)	3mo	$339,990	$157	74
32315 Magnolia Glen Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (+4%)	4mo	$330,000	$161	72
32014 Indigo Brush Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,030 (+4%)	4mo	$282,990	$139	72
21738 Sagebrush Meadow Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,091 (+7%)	1mo	$388,299	$186	63
32022 Indigo Brush Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,176 (+11%)	2mo	$306,990	$141	60
21910 Pecan Buff Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,118 (+8%)	5mo	$299,990	$142	50
21919 Laurel Cherry Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,243 (+14%)	0mo	$345,697	$154	48
21815 Pecan Buff Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,243 (+14%)	1mo	$335,776	$150	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-104,713
• Equity at exit: $48,954

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-172,245
• Equity at exit: $28,387

Cash invested: $91,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $317,990 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,722
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,925/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,872

Max offer price $224,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-492	-5% $-605	+0% $-719	+5% $-832	+10% $-946
Rent	-10% $-874	-5% $-796	+0% $-719	+5% $-641	+10% $-564
Rate	-1.0pp $-554	-0.5pp $-635	base $-719	+0.5pp $-804	+1.0pp $-891

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,080
• Closing costs: $9,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,990 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,990 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,990 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,990 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $282,990 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $282,990 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $282,990 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $282,990 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $282,990 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,990 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,990 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $282,990 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 273 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,990 Active 272 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 270 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,990 Active 269 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,990 Active 268 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 267 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 265 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,990 Active 264 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,990 Active 263 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,990 Active 262 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 261 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 260 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 259 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,990 Active 258 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,990 Active 257 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,990 Active 256 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,990 Active 255 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $282,990 Active 254 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $282,990 Active 252 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,990 Active 249 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,990 Active 246 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,990 Active 245 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,990 Active 244 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,990 Active 243 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,990 Active 241 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,990 Active 237 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,990 Active 236 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,990 Active 235 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,990 Active 232 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 231 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $282,990 Active 230 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 229 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 228 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,391
• − Property taxes: −$4,925
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$9,551
• Taxable loss: −$14,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,536
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,800–$29,400 screening

This single-family home in Waller, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic improvements needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen backsplash — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waller, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow