411 Sergeant Dr · Lambertville, NJ 08530

$925,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,580 sqft · Condo public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2009 $258/sqft · at area comps Est $916k · at est. $370/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

Key facts

• $370 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $925k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($117k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $925k).
• Recommended offer: $911k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 4.7% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $259k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($911k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $505k; list at $925k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $911,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.31%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $916,153
• List price: $925,000
• Delta: 0.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $473,569
• Equity at exit: $137,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $1,216,904
• Equity at exit: $79,977

Cash invested: $259,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08530

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,851
• Tax from tax record: −$1,280 /mo · $15,357/yr
• Insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,430
• Net cashflow: $9,779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,716

Max offer price $925,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,303	-5% $10,041	+0% $9,779	+5% $9,517	+10% $9,256
Rent	-10% $8,113	-5% $8,946	+0% $9,779	+5% $10,612	+10% $11,446
Rate	-1.0pp $10,245	-0.5pp $10,014	base $9,779	+0.5pp $9,539	+1.0pp $9,296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,250
• Closing costs: $27,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Arnett Ave Unit 1380124P Lambertville, NJ	4.0	2.0	2497	$25,101	$10.05	44d	1	0.28mi
70 W Bridge St New Hope, PA	3.0	2.5	2718	$6,800	$2.50	11d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $925,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 2600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2600 chars)

   Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

3. 2026-04-24
   listed $925,000 Active 1427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2600 chars)

   Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

4. 2026-04-24
   listed $925,000 Active 2600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2600 chars)

   Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

5. 2026-04-22
   historical $925,000 1427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2600 chars)

   Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

6. 2026-04-22
   historical $925,000 2600-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2600 chars)

   Perched above the Delaware River Valley in the coveted Lambert’s Hill community, this exceptional end-unit residence captures breathtaking sunset views and offers a lifestyle defined by beauty, ease, and connection to the charm of the river towns. Just moments from the heart of Lambertville, with effortless access to New Hope, Frenchtown, and scenic riverfront destinations, the location is as compelling as the home itself. A welcoming front porch sets the tone, leading into interiors filled with natural light and refined architectural detail. Rich hardwood flooring spans both the first and second levels, complemented by elegant millwork, decorative columns, tray ceilings, and crown molding. Expansive palladium windows frame picturesque views and create a seamless connection between indoor living and the surrounding landscape. At the center of the home, the kitchen is both inviting and impressive. Designed for gathering and entertaining, it features a substantial granite island, a tumbled marble backsplash, premium stainless steel appliances including a six-burner range, and a farmhouse sink perfectly positioned beneath a window overlooking serene wooded views. The adjoining breakfast area opens to a maintenance-free deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening dining with a view. The two-story great room is a showpiece, with soaring ceilings and a gas fireplace that anchors the space with warmth and style, flowing effortlessly into the adjacent family room to create an expansive yet intimate setting for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with sweeping views, generous proportions, and two walk-in closets. The spa-inspired bath is thoughtfully appointed with a soaking tub, dual sinks, and a glass-enclosed shower. Two additional bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, along with a full bath and linen storage, complete the upper level. The finished walk-out lower level adds versatility, featuring an additional bedroom, a half bath, and flexible living space ideal for guests, a home office, or recreation. Sliding doors open to a bluestone patio and a partially fenced yard, extending the living experience outdoors. Additional features include designer paint throughout, a two-car garage, and a whole-house Generac generator for added peace of mind. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in one of New Jersey’s most picturesque settings, where every day is framed by natural beauty, timeless design, and effortless access to vibrant river towns, Princeton, Philadelphia, and New York City.

7. 2012-07-20
   soldstatus $505,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,357 · $1,280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,195 · $1,600/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,838/yr (+$320/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $253,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,814
• − Property taxes: −$15,357
• − Insurance: −$4,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,251
• − Management: −$20,251
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$26,909
• Taxable income: $109,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,278
• After-tax cash flow: $91,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hunterdon Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400769
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $82,621
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #335 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lambertville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #4460

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lambertville, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 8,146

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunterdon

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.7% · R 52.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+13.8 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.68%
• Current HPI: 226.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+83.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $925,000 GSMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $925,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $925,000 GSMLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $925,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $505,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,357 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.