16 Hudson Pkwy · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$149,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $113/sqft · 13% below area Est $172k · 13% under $425/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cambridge model with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Lots of closets, bonus room in front with direct access from garage. Sq ft approx

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchenette
• Laminate flooring
• Private back yard

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• EAT-IN KITCHENETTE
• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• FLORIDA ROOM
• DIRECT ENTRY TO GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Crestwood Village 3); Monthly association fee of $425; HOA covers trash, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse (no pool)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Model: Cambridge; Living area approximately 1,318
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot/topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking / Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Heat pump with central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window treatments; Light fixtures; Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.47%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,920
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Hudson Pkwy	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,318 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	100
5 Bayberry Ln Unit A	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$158	74
3B Drake St #53	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	3mo	$210,000	$151	74
7 B Birchwood Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	2mo	$200,000	$144	69
9 Greenleaf St	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,193 (-10%)	5mo	$235,000	$197	66
12 Birchwood Dr Unit A	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-10%)	4mo	$250,000	$211	59
58 Milford Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-8%)	5mo	$235,000	$193	58
2 Cottage Ct Unit A	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,184 (-10%)	7mo	$239,000	$202	58
48 B Auburn St Unit 54B	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,392 (+6%)	6mo	$219,000	$157	57
1 Adams Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	6mo	$178,000	$132	56
196 Constitution Blvd	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,398 (+6%)	2mo	$168,000	$120	56
36 Penwood Dr #55	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,219 (-8%)	3mo	$235,000	$193	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,086
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,930
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $398	-5% $346	+0% $295	+5% $243	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $207	+0% $295	+5% $382	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $333	base $295	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	0.33mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	0.34mi
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	44d	1	0.51mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	0.53mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	0.54mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	21d	1	0.54mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	44d	1	1.07mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	1.08mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	1d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $149,000 Active 762-char remark
8. 2026-02-10
   price $160,000
9. 2025-09-21
   listed $170,000 Active
10. 2021-09-22
    soldstatus $86,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Cambridge model with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Lots of closets, bonus room in front with direct access from garage. Sq ft approx

11. 2021-08-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Cambridge model with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Lots of closets, bonus room in front with direct access from garage. Sq ft approx

12. 2021-07-29
    listed $89,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (127 chars)

    Cambridge model with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. Lots of closets, bonus room in front with direct access from garage. Sq ft approx

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$374
• After-tax cash flow: $3,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Whiting, Crestwood Village Co-Op 3 is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, windows, foundation/structure, HVAC/mechanicals, and landscaping/curb appeal. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can be done to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MOMLS
• 2026-06-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $160,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $170,000 MOMLS
• 2021-09-22 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MOMLS
• 2021-08-20 Pending — MOMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $89,000 MOMLS