630 Pinemont Dr · Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $189/sqft · 50% below area Est $399k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced for immediate sale! Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a private Smoky Mountain retreat in a peaceful, non-STR neighborhood just minutes from the Parkway! Ideally located only 5 minutes from Dollywood, The Island in Pigeon Forge, shopping, dining, and top area attractions, this property offers the hard-to-find combination of convenience, privacy, and mountain charm. Great Smoky Mountains National Park is also just a short drive away for endless outdoor adventure. This unique 2-bedroom, 1-bath cabin features a nice living and dining combo, laundry area, and a wrap-around deck perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful wooded setting. Full of potential and waiting for someone

Key facts

• Wrap-around deck
• 1 acre lot
• Built 1994

Tags

• PRIVATE SMOKY MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• PEACEFUL WOODED SETTING
• WRAP-AROUND DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Pre-fab/other fireplace (1)
• Exterior features: Private, wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 331 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $200k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,500 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,541
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -39.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Two View Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+4%)	5mo	$319,000	$290	57
641 Chickasaw Gap Way	0.46mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	1mo	$402,500	$349	56
633 Chickasaw Gap Way	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,178 (+12%)	1mo	$465,000	$395	54
334 Creekwalk Blvd	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+12%)	18mo	$392,000	$331	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,124
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,780
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37863

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
770 Marshall Acrs St Pigeon Forge, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0	688	$1,825	$2.65	44d	15	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $199,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $249,900 Active 1348-char remark
18. 2002-04-15
    soldstatus $114,000
19. 1996-03-15
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 216.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$65
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $3,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pigeon Forge, TN
• City population: 21,767
• Population (ZIP): 6,469

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Arab 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.78%
• Current HPI: 302.7183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+233.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $199,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $239,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $249,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2002-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.