539 5th St · Cambria, PA 15927

$40,375

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 1911 6,969 sqft lot $45/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity in the Cambria School District. This two-bedroom, one-bath home offers strong potential for renovation and resale or even long-term rental. The Property is ready for updates and finishing touches to restore its original character and maximize value.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1911
• Listed 148 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Cambria SD (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #225 of 539 in PA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($279 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,530 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.94%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,659
• List price: $40,375
• Delta: -55.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
438 4th St	0.04mi	2/1.5	896 (0%)	23mo	$85,000	$95	77
740 7th St	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+12%)	13mo	$100,000	$100	62
770 Seventh St	0.28mi	2/1.0	956 (+7%)	16mo	$89,900	$94	62
209 Tripoli Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	879 (-2%)	19mo	$19,500	$22	50
933 9th St	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,000 (+12%)	20mo	$109,900	$110	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $31,248
• Equity at exit: $18,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $74,324
• Equity at exit: $27,978

Cash invested: $11,305 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15927

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$212
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $365

Max offer price $40,375

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $425	+0% $414	+5% $403	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $379	+0% $414	+5% $449	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $424	base $414	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,094
• Closing costs: $1,211
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,375 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,375 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,375 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,375 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,375 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,375 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,375 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,375 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,375 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,375 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,375 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,375 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $40,375 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    price $42,500 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Investment Opportunity in the Cambria School District. This two-bedroom, one-bath home offers strong potential for renovation and resale or even long-term rental. The Property is ready for updates and finishing touches to restore its original character and maximize value.

18. 2026-03-06
    price $44,800 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Investment Opportunity in the Cambria School District. This two-bedroom, one-bath home offers strong potential for renovation and resale or even long-term rental. The Property is ready for updates and finishing touches to restore its original character and maximize value.

19. 2026-01-23
    listed $47,250 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Investment Opportunity in the Cambria School District. This two-bedroom, one-bath home offers strong potential for renovation and resale or even long-term rental. The Property is ready for updates and finishing touches to restore its original character and maximize value.

20. 2008-01-18
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 1978-09-01
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $720 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,262
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$1,175
• Taxable income: $4,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $3,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Cambria SD
• NCES district ID: 4205340
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $50,276
• Composite: 40.68/100
• National rank: #3674
• State rank: #225 of 539 in PA

Livability — Cambria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colver, PA
• Population (ZIP): 851

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 8% Polish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $42,500 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $44,800 West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $47,250 West Penn MLS
• 2008-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1978-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $720 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.