1409 Newhaven Rd · Wichita Falls, TX 76306

$89,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property or starter home. Fresh paint inside and out. Recent foundation repairs done by Reliable Foundation repair. Garage was converted to a living space but could easily be converted back to a garage.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Built 1960
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lynwood subdivision; Zoned for single-family residential

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story; Faces west
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,157 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.09%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,727
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $24,057
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76306

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 Roanoke Dr Unit B Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$990	$1.13	44d	1	0.61mi
1200 Ridgeway Dr Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,025	$1.15	44d	5	0.67mi
1700 Enterprise St Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$990	$1.06	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 408-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $89,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $2,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$482
• After-tax cash flow: $2,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wichita Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,604
• Composite: 27.06/100
• National rank: #7051
• State rank: #585 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,963
• Household income: $46,957
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.29%
• Current HPI: 165.6314
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $89,500 WFAOR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-20 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2023-01-17 Listed $89,940 WFAOR
• 2013-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.