8118 Ebenezer Rd · Carthage, MS 39051

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Built 1991 0.30 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($381/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#243 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Leake County School District (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #102 of 130 in MS (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Leake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,922 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $61,255
• Equity at exit: $103,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $176,963
• Equity at exit: $213,344

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39051

• Home prices YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $980/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $125,000
16. 2025-12-06
    listed $130,000 Active
17. 2007-12-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$980
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$998
• − Management: −$998
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leake County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802520
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,894
• Composite: 13.33/100
• National rank: #9538
• State rank: #102 of 130 in MS

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #20150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,242

Population outlook (Leake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,382 people
• By 2030: 20,405 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 18,208 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 15,732 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 9,562 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 5,455 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Leake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.4) · D 38.0% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.4 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.96%
• Current HPI: 161.5452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $125,000 EMR
• 2025-12-06 Listed $130,000 EMR
• 2007-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $980 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.