512 N Patterson Park Ave · Baltimore, MD 21205

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Townhouse public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $150k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your rowhome with great potential and ready for your finishing touches! Step inside to an open and inviting living room featuring exposed brick walls that add character and charm. The spacious kitchen offers ample cabinetry and prep space, perfect for preparing everyday meals or entertaining. A convenient main-level powder room adds extra functionality. Upstairs, you’ll find three bright bedrooms with generous closet space and a full bathroom that has been updated with a tub/shower combo, ideal for relaxing after a long day. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered back patio, perfect for hosting summer BBQs, along with a fully fenced yard for added privacy. Conveniently located

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $897 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,143/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 966% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $135k implies a 382% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.51%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,760
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 N Patterson Park Ave	0.01mi	3/1.5	640 (0%)	8mo	$78,000	$122	91
2305 Ashland Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	616 (-4%)	4mo	$78,000	$127	79
26 N Madeira St	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	672 (+5%)	6mo	$103,000	$153	63
207 S Durham St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (+5%)	1mo	$157,000	$234	57
203 S Madeira St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	601 (-6%)	7mo	$110,250	$183	53
229 S Durham St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (+12%)	5mo	$181,000	$251	35
313 S Duncan St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	724 (+13%)	14mo	$211,000	$291	30
420 S Madeira St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (+14%)	15mo	$170,000	$234	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $46,576
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $165,500
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21205

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $897

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	520	$1,200	$2.31	4d	1	0.18mi
2221 E Preston St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	658	$1,200	$1.82	24d	1	0.59mi
305 S Collington Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	722	$2,895	$4.01	17d	1	0.65mi
1607 Hakesley Pl Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	43d	1	0.79mi
2410 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	720	$2,200	$3.06	24d	1	0.84mi
520 Somerset St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	634	$1,578	$2.49	43d	1	0.87mi
210 S Caroline St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	808	$1,965	$2.43	43d	23	0.91mi
622 S Broadway Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,998	$3.14	1d	8	1.02mi
555 President St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–4.0	1352	$5,373	$3.97	2d	1	1.24mi
1001 Aliceanna St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$3,081	$3.65	3d	3	1.25mi
1100 Greenmount Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	839	$2,584	$3.08	2d	1	1.30mi
3905 Bank St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0–3.0	909	$2,820	$3.10	2d	20	1.31mi
1405 Point St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	652	$3,336	$5.11	3d	2	1.33mi
414 Water St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	751	$3,600	$4.79	2d	6	1.42mi
414 Water St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	751	$3,600	$4.79	3d	7	1.42mi
3610 Dillon St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$2,820	$3.41	43d	1	1.45mi
222 E Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,665	$2.58	18d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $134,900
3. 2026-03-06
   price $140,000
4. 2026-02-25
   price $150,000
5. 2026-02-21
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2026-02-20
   historical $175,000
7. 2026-01-10
   historical
8. 2025-12-19
   historical
9. 1983-10-13
   soldstatus $28,000
10. 1982-08-31
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 141.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $9,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $8,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,013
• Household income: $43,176
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 966.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.03%
• Current HPI: 244.1345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.88%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1398.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Coming Soon $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-19 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1982-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $383 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.