744 W End Ave · Carthage, NY 13619

$84,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1811 0.72 ac lot $47/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH. This home is solid and massive yard double lot used as circular driveway. . Whether you're looking for your forever home or looking use as income property, this is the perfect option. This spacious village home offers incredible potential with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms set on an impressive deep lot measuring 94x332 feet. Inside, you'll find beautiful hardwood floors, large formal living and dining rooms perfect for gatherings, first-floor laundry, a convenient mud room, and an enclosed porch to enjoy year-round. Major updates include a newer roof on the main house and a new sump pump for added peace of mind. Lot still had remnants of garage foundation. There

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Enclosed porch
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING ROOMS
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• MUD ROOM
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: 2-story existing home; Poured foundation; Metal roof; Constructed with block and concrete
• Construction: Built previously (existing structure); Block and concrete construction; Metal roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Shed(s) / storage; Dirt driveway; Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare; Lot dimensions approximately 94 x 332

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11 (includes living and laundry areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heating; Radiator heating
• Interior features: Leaded glass windows; Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Natural woodwork; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 5.5% in Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($584 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1811 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,965 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1811 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.33%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,159
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: -60.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
82 Champion St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,694 (-5%)	1mo	$236,000	$139	58
713 Fulton St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,737 (-2%)	2mo	$204,250	$118	57
838 Alexandria St	0.47mi	4/1.5	1,762 (-1%)	22mo	$179,900	$102	56
66 Champion St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+2%)	13mo	$220,000	$121	49
304 N James St	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,800 (+1%)	21mo	$185,000	$103	48
427 N Clinton St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,874 (+5%)	17mo	$190,000	$101	47
556 Adelaide St	0.35mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,890 (+6%)	17mo	$1,000	$1	46
47 N Jefferson St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,674 (-6%)	3mo	$286,700	$171	45
20392 County Route 45	0.60mi	4/1.0	1,536 (-14%)	9mo	$151,000	$98	41
37 N Main St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-1%)	21mo	$223,200	$127	39
67 Champion St	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,631 (-8%)	23mo	$195,000	$120	34
614 Fulton St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,018 (+13%)	21mo	$230,000	$114	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $60,156
• Equity at exit: $76,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $167,011
• Equity at exit: $164,165

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,118/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $84,500 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $84,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $84,500 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $84,500 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $84,500 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $84,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-05-09
    listed $84,500 Active 852-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,118 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,118 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$2,118
• − Insurance: −$5,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $1,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $84,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,118 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.