Bayberry III Plan · Burleson, TX 76028

$494,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,261 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Classic Series Bayberry III floor plan is a two-story home with five bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, an upstairs game room, and a second private bedroom suite that has the option to change to a shared Jack and Jill. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining
• Large family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $494,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $519,550.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $495k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $408k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Joshua El (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #189 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 683 students, 28% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1049 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $357,059 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,550
• List price: $494,990
• Delta: -4.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2744 Richard St	0.27mi	5/3.5	3,261 (0%)	7mo	$447,500	$137	82
2609 Steve St	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,124 (-4%)	3mo	$549,900	$176	78
2604 Steve St	0.12mi	5/4.0	3,479 (+7%)	5mo	$549,900	$158	77
2700 Richard St	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,168 (-3%)	6mo	$334,650	$106	76
2612 Lila St	0.18mi	5/4.0	3,481 (+7%)	4mo	$599,900	$172	75
245 Prairie Oak Ct	0.44mi	5/3.5	3,230 (-1%)	5mo	$449,900	$139	74
300 Ben Thomas St	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,118 (-4%)	4mo	$449,999	$144	69
2747 Elmwood Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,364 (+3%)	4mo	$514,900	$153	64
2605 Lila St	0.21mi	5/4.0	2,873 (-12%)	6mo	$524,900	$183	63
2739 Chimney Rock Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,034 (-7%)	6mo	$523,500	$173	59
9900 Tantarra Dr	0.75mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,186 (-2%)	1mo	$1,175,000	$369	54
225 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,585 (+10%)	5mo	$475,000	$132	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-137,490
• Equity at exit: $77,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-199,971
• Equity at exit: $44,921

Cash invested: $145,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $519,995 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1049
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,793/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$750
• Net cashflow: $-770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,545

Max offer price $408,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-411	-5% $-590	+0% $-770	+5% $-949	+10% $-1,129
Rent	-10% $-1,052	-5% $-911	+0% $-770	+5% $-629	+10% $-488
Rate	-1.0pp $-508	-0.5pp $-638	base $-770	+0.5pp $-904	+1.0pp $-1,041

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,887
• Closing costs: $15,586
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	119d	1	0.24mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	117d	1	0.24mi
2760 Richard St Burleson, TX	4.0	4.0	3336	$3,900	$1.17	62d	1	0.31mi
521 Livia St Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	3334	$4,750	$1.42	44d	1	0.31mi
2743 Chimney Rock Rd Burleson, TX	4.0	3.5	3540	$3,700	$1.05	18d	1	0.32mi
2435 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	3.0	3064	$2,650	$0.86	0d	1	0.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveInventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: List price: $494,990
• HOA & community: HOA details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Bayberry III)Living area approximately 3,261
• Construction: New construction (Plan name: Bayberry III)Year built: 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: New construction home (plan: Bayberry III)Address: 2641 Alyssa St, Burleson, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes modern kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: HVAC details not provided
• Interior features: Open-plan living areas (new construction plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $494,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $494,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $494,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $494,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $494,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $494,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $494,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $494,990 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $494,990 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $494,990 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $494,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $494,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $494,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $494,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $494,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $494,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $494,990 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $494,990 Active 14 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $494,990 Active 13 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $494,990 Active 12 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $494,990 Active 11 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $494,990 Active 10 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $494,990 Active 8 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $494,990 Active 7 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $494,990 Active 6 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $494,990 Active 5 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $494,990 Active 4 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $494,990 Active 3 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $494,990 Active 2 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on marketlisting id $494,990 Active 1 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $494,990 Active 568 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $494,990 Active 567 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $494,990 Active 566 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $494,990 Active 565 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $494,990 Active 564 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $494,990 Active 563 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $494,990 Active 562 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $494,990 Active 561 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $494,990 Active 560 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $494,990 Active 558 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $494,990 Active 557 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $494,990 Active 556 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $494,990 Active 555 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $494,990 Active 552 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $494,990 Active 550 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $494,990 Active 549 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $494,990 Active 547 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $494,990 Active 545 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $494,990 Active 544 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $494,990 Active 543 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,103
• − Property taxes: −$7,793
• − Insurance: −$2,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,428
• − Management: −$3,428
• − Depreciation: −$15,114
• Taxable loss: −$18,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,468
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Burleson, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Joshua El B+ TX #189/4,322 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle R C Loflin Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Joshua H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 179,678 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveInventory type: Plan (new construction)
• Financial info: List price: $494,990
• HOA & community: HOA details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Bayberry III)Living area approximately 3,261
• Construction: New construction (Plan name: Bayberry III)Year built: 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: New construction home (plan: Bayberry III)Address: 2641 Alyssa St, Burleson, TX

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes modern kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: HVAC details not provided
• Interior features: Open-plan living areas (new construction plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided