139 Davis Ave · Sacramento, CA 95823

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1978 $90/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 139 Davis a beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath triple-wide mobile home offering an impressive 2,304 sq ft of living space in a desirable all-ages community. Fresh interior paint, updated baseboards, and LVT flooring throughout the home create a clean, modern, and cohesive feel. The spacious living and dining areas feature beautiful ceiling beams and a stunning built-in hutch that adds warmth and character. The kitchen opens seamlessly to the family room, providing an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. The generously sized primary suite is a true retreat, complete with two walk-in closets and a spacious ensuite bathroom featuring double sinks, a standing

Key facts

• Updated baseboards
• Walk-in closets
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• UPDATED BASEBOARDS
• LVT FLOORING
• CEILING BEAMS
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.93%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -67.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,610
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $54,661
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3249 Torrance Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1258	$2,599	$2.07	23d	1	0.28mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	0.51mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,254	$1.84	43d	1	0.56mi
4066 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,900	$1.44	43d	1	0.57mi
7570 Wrenwood Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,395	$1.56	43d	1	0.58mi
4623 Goya Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,400	$1.93	43d	1	0.77mi
4812 D Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1505	$2,295	$1.52	23d	1	0.95mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	43d	1	1.22mi
2360 53rd Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1474	$2,495	$1.69	43d	1	1.33mi
7826 Brizio Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1616	$2,950	$1.83	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   status $175,000 Pending 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$894/yr (+$74/mo · 204.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $7,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $8,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.