18408 Kelly Rd · Detroit, MI 48224

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Townhouse public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1942 3,920 sqft lot $30/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick townhouse offers 840 square feet of living space plus a full basement. Filled with great natural light, the home has solid bones and just needs some cosmetic updates to truly shine. Whether you're looking to customize your dream space, build equity, or add to your investment portfolio, this property is full of potential. Easy to show - don't miss your chance to see it!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1942
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.6% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 484 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $23,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.30%
• DSCR: 6.93
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,003
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -52.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $42,804
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.94×
• Total profit: $90,582
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48224

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 484
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	0.20mi
12201 Morang Ave Unit 8 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	610	$875	$1.43	43d	1	0.22mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	43d	1	0.26mi
16241 Seven Mile E Unit 4 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	43d	1	0.45mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	43d	1	0.46mi
16212 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	12d	1	0.46mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	0.48mi
11611 Morang Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,040	$1.47	43d	1	0.50mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	14d	1	0.50mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	43d	1	0.51mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	43d	1	0.51mi
11529 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	12d	1	0.57mi
11235 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,325	$1.25	17d	1	0.65mi
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	0.66mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	0.76mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.79mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	0.83mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	0.93mi
10692 Meuse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	12d	1	0.95mi
10400 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	890	$1,100	$1.24	43d	1	0.97mi
10404 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,475	$1.33	3d	1	0.98mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	3d	1	1.00mi
10370 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.00mi
10985 Peerless St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	4d	1	1.02mi
10177 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	767	$1,250	$1.63	43d	1	1.03mi
10644 Stratman St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	1.04mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	1.05mi
15030 Rossini Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	720	$800	$1.11	43d	1	1.07mi
10037 Grayton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	1.09mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	24d	1	1.12mi
10141 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1115	$1,000	$0.90	43d	1	1.21mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	14d	1	1.22mi
10542 Lanark St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,250	$1.22	43d	1	1.22mi
9927 Beaconsfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	942	$1,375	$1.46	14d	1	1.29mi
14103 Rochelle Ave Unit 3 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	1.29mi
9140 Whittier Ave Unit 1 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	43d	1	1.30mi
9747 Somerset Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	797	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	1.33mi
15663 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	803	$1,050	$1.31	14d	1	1.35mi
9516 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	17d	1	1.36mi
6304 Bluehill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $25,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick townhouse offers 840 square feet of living space plus a full basement. Filled with great natural light, the home has solid bones and just needs some cosmetic updates to truly shine. Whether you're looking to customize your dream space, build equity, or add to your investment portfolio, this property is full of potential. Easy to show - don't miss your chance to see it!

15. 2026-05-12
    price $25,000 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick townhouse offers 840 square feet of living space plus a full basement. Filled with great natural light, the home has solid bones and just needs some cosmetic updates to truly shine. Whether you’re looking to customize your dream space, build equity, or add to your investment portfolio, this property is full of potential. Easy to show—don’t miss your chance to see it!

16. 2026-03-20
    listed $29,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick townhouse offers 840 square feet of living space plus a full basement. Filled with great natural light, the home has solid bones and just needs some cosmetic updates to truly shine. Whether you’re looking to customize your dream space, build equity, or add to your investment portfolio, this property is full of potential. Easy to show—don’t miss your chance to see it!

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $29,000 Active 425-char remark

    Show marketing remark (425 chars)

    This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath brick townhouse offers 840 square feet of living space plus a full basement. Filled with great natural light, the home has solid bones and just needs some cosmetic updates to truly shine. Whether you’re looking to customize your dream space, build equity, or add to your investment portfolio, this property is full of potential. Easy to show—don’t miss your chance to see it!

18. 2026-02-02
    historical
19. 2026-02-02
    historical
20. 2025-12-03
    listed $89,900 Active
21. 2025-12-03
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2024-05-05
    historical $900
23. 2024-04-16
    listed $900
24. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus $72,500
25. 2021-03-16
    soldstatus $40,000
26. 2001-01-19
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,280
• After-tax cash flow: $7,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,668
• Household income: $44,856
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2515.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.38%
• Current HPI: 161.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $25,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $25,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $29,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $29,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-03 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-05 Rental Removed $900 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-16 Listed for Rent $900 APPFOLIO
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2021-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · -54.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.