1612 Thornton Ferry Rd · Piney, AR 71913

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1966 0.42 ac lot $161/sqft · 8% below area Est $187k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! This 3/2 is ripe for a remodel. Whether you're looking at purchasing a fixer-upper for your first home, or a project to remodel and rent out, this home is the one for you! Don't miss out! Property is Bank-Owned, and will look at any and all offers. HOME TO BE SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, ON NO FAULTS BASIS

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-302/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.8% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,719 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,873
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -33.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 Houston Dr	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	760 (-2%)	10mo	$134,000	$176	54
362 Beach Haven Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0	880 (+13%)	20mo	$100,000	$114	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,236
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,981
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $120,548

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $10	+0% $-25	+5% $-61	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-65	+0% $-25	+5% $15	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $7	base $-25	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 Thornton Ferry Rd Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	820	$930	$1.13	45d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $125,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! This 3/2 is ripe for a remodel. Whether you're looking at purchasing a fixer-upper for your first home, or a project to remodel and rent out, this home is the one for you! Don't miss out! Property is Bank-Owned, and will look at any and all offers. HOME TO BE SOLD AS-IS, WHERE-IS, ON NO FAULTS BASIS

20. 2026-03-21
    historical
21. 2026-03-20
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 2026-03-20
    listed $125,000 New Listing
23. 2026-03-17
    listed $125,000 New Listing
24. 2025-01-30
    price $109,000
25. 2022-10-12
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold
26. 2022-10-12
    soldstatus $150,000
27. 2022-06-16
    historical
28. 2022-06-16
    listed $150,000
29. 2022-06-16
    listed $150,000
30. 2009-07-15
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$977
• − Management: −$977
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piney

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+303.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-21 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $125,000 HSBOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $109,000 HSBOR
• 2022-10-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 HSBOR
• 2022-10-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $150,000 HSBOR
• 2022-06-16 Listed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2009-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.