22 W Cherry St · Shenandoah, PA 17976

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1979 2,614 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-986/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 12.5% in Shenandoah — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#720 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Shenandoah Valley SD (town): math 20% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #454 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Valley El Sch (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,116 of 1,518 statewide, top 74%, 667 students, 100% FRL); Shenandoah Valley Jshs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #365 of 437 statewide, top 85%, 539 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 66% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 169 units permitted in Schuylkill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Schuylkill County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $129,429 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,392
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
330 W Poplar St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,120 (+11%)	11mo	$55,000	$49	64
333 S West St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-7%)	21mo	$46,000	$49	60
328 W Cherry St	0.17mi	2/1.0	884 (-12%)	17mo	$55,000	$62	57
326 Arlington St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+13%)	5mo	$42,500	$37	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $21,320
• Equity at exit: $79,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $74,621
• Equity at exit: $129,159

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17976

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,388/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $145,478

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-37	+0% $-82	+5% $-127	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-133	+0% $-82	+5% $-31	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-42	base $-82	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 N Gilbert St Shenandoah, PA	1.0	1.5	910	$1,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.25mi
230 W Arlington St Shenandoah, PA	3.0	1.0	1143	$1,400	$1.22	45d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Active
3. 2026-04-07
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2026-03-01
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-01
   status Active
6. 2026-02-28
   historical
7. 2025-11-28
   price $160,000
8. 2025-09-24
   price $170,000
9. 2025-07-23
   listed $180,000 Active
10. 2025-07-17
    historical $180,000
11. 2025-06-27
    soldstatus $125,000
12. 2000-10-25
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,388 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,388
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$902
• After-tax cash flow: $-84/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4221490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,968
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7851
• State rank: #454 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #7134

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, PA
• City population: 5,988
• Population (ZIP): 5,988

Population outlook (Schuylkill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,447 people
• By 2030: 133,121 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 124,172 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 115,611 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 100,796 · -26.7%
• By 2100: 86,667 · -36.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuylkill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+39.9 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 308.8036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-17 Coming Soon $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,388 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.