27 Bright Oaks Cir · Gates, NY 14624

$199,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1966 0.59 ac lot $85/sqft · 41% below area Est $336k · 41% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 27 Bright Oaks Circle! This 5-bedroom 2 bath raised ranch has plenty of space to spread out. On the main floor you will find a living room, dining room, and kitchen with eat-in area as well as 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The lower level includes a fireplaced family room with a built-in wet bar, 2 additional bedrooms and an additional full bathroom. Newer furnace and air conditioning unit. Outside the fully fenced yard provides a peaceful setting to relax by the pool or room to run and play. For any car enthusiast or hobbyist, the attached garage is heated!

Key facts

• Bright living room
• Formal dining area
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACED FAMILY ROOM
• BUILT-IN WET BAR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story existing home; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Below-grade finished area present (partially finished basement)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built as existing (year built details listed as existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Irregular lot; Near public transit; Residential setting; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in/country kitchen; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level and in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Paul Road School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 430 students, 42% FRL); Gates-Chili Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #504 of 729 statewide, top 70%, 854 students, 58% FRL); Gates-Chili High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,132 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $196,999 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,251
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -40.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Bright Oaks Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,369 (+1%)	8mo	$275,000	$116	77
61 Toni Ter	0.43mi	5/3.5	2,334 (-0%)	13mo	$440,000	$189	63
58 Alger Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,170 (-7%)	3mo	$391,000	$180	62
3025 Chili Ave Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,332 (-0%)	8mo	$275,000	$118	62
17 Brewster Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,418 (+3%)	9mo	$325,000	$134	54
53 Toni Ter	0.38mi	5/4.5	2,170 (-7%)	9mo	$360,000	$166	53
39 Wilelen Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,205 (-6%)	8mo	$180,000	$82	49
681 Marshall Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,401 (+3%)	17mo	$276,000	$115	42
47 Toni Ter	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,642 (+13%)	18mo	$490,000	$185	42
18 Bent Oak Rd	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,058 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$170	39
58 Bright Oaks Dr	0.34mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,014 (-14%)	20mo	$293,500	$146	38
41 Chestnut Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-13%)	21mo	$320,000	$157	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,296
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,815
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,949/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $463	+0% $406	+5% $350	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $300	+0% $406	+5% $512	+10% $618
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $457	base $406	+0.5pp $354	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $199,999 Active 907-char remark
4. 2023-12-28
   soldstatus $265,000
5. 2023-12-27
   status Pending 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Welcome to 27 Bright Oaks Circle! This 5-bedroom 2 bath raised ranch has plenty of space to spread out. On the main floor you will find a living room, dining room, and kitchen with eat-in area as well as 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The lower level includes a fireplaced family room with a built-in wet bar, 2 additional bedrooms and an additional full bathroom. Newer furnace and air conditioning unit. Outside the fully fenced yard provides a peaceful setting to relax by the pool or room to run and play. For any car enthusiast or hobbyist, the attached garage is heated!

6. 2023-12-20
   soldstatus $265,000 Closed 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Welcome to 27 Bright Oaks Circle! This 5-bedroom 2 bath raised ranch has plenty of space to spread out. On the main floor you will find a living room, dining room, and kitchen with eat-in area as well as 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The lower level includes a fireplaced family room with a built-in wet bar, 2 additional bedrooms and an additional full bathroom. Newer furnace and air conditioning unit. Outside the fully fenced yard provides a peaceful setting to relax by the pool or room to run and play. For any car enthusiast or hobbyist, the attached garage is heated!

7. 2023-11-16
   status Pending Sale 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Welcome to 27 Bright Oaks Circle! This 5-bedroom 2 bath raised ranch has plenty of space to spread out. On the main floor you will find a living room, dining room, and kitchen with eat-in area as well as 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The lower level includes a fireplaced family room with a built-in wet bar, 2 additional bedrooms and an additional full bathroom. Newer furnace and air conditioning unit. Outside the fully fenced yard provides a peaceful setting to relax by the pool or room to run and play. For any car enthusiast or hobbyist, the attached garage is heated!

8. 2023-10-25
   listed $249,995 Active 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Welcome to 27 Bright Oaks Circle! This 5-bedroom 2 bath raised ranch has plenty of space to spread out. On the main floor you will find a living room, dining room, and kitchen with eat-in area as well as 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom. The lower level includes a fireplaced family room with a built-in wet bar, 2 additional bedrooms and an additional full bathroom. Newer furnace and air conditioning unit. Outside the fully fenced yard provides a peaceful setting to relax by the pool or room to run and play. For any car enthusiast or hobbyist, the attached garage is heated!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,949 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,949 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,949
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,573
• − Management: −$2,573
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $4,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,045
• Composite: 36.23/100
• National rank: #4719
• State rank: #491 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #10531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,999 UNYREIS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $265,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-11-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-10-25 Listed $249,995 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,949 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.