4308 Sconce · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$327,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2019 2,134 sqft lot Est $346k · 5% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4308 Sconce is a rare find in the Village at Candle Station. One-owner, METICULOUSLY maintained 2019 home offering wooded views, exceptional condition, and the highly desirable MOZART 1440 SqFt floorplan (larger width and more spacious), the largest two-story layout in the community. From the moment you enter, the pride of ownership is unmistakable. This home has been carefully preserved with annual HVAC servicing/inspection, clean filters and vents, routine exterior power washing, and minimal signs of wear throughout. The open-concept main level features spacious living areas and an upgraded kitchen layout with a larger island for added function and entertaining space. Upstairs offers comf

Key facts

• $133 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by United Property Associates; Monthly POA fee of $133; Ground maintenance, playgrounds, and trash pickup provided by the association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 2 spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Attached townhouse; End unit; Two stories; Crawl foundation; Handheld showerhead accessibility feature
• Construction: Vinyl and stone siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ensuite; Two additional bedrooms on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Permanent attic stairs / pull-down attic stairs; Primary double sink; Walk-in closet; Attic; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $246k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,717 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,600
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4307 Sconce	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,294 (-10%)	0mo	$310,000	$240	82
7536 Tealight Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$300,000	$208	80
4114 Votive	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$300,000	$208	76
7541 Luminary Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-11%)	2mo	$312,000	$244	75
4300 Sconce	0.02mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,294 (-10%)	4mo	$299,000	$231	74
4318 Sconce	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-11%)	13mo	$310,000	$242	70
4318 Sconce	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-11%)	13mo	$310,000	$242	70
7543 Luminary Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	10mo	$310,000	$242	66
4311 Sconce	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	21mo	$300,000	$234	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-62,811
• Equity at exit: $48,831

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-70,661
• Equity at exit: $28,316

Cash invested: $91,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,717
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,097/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,736

Max offer price $303,896

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,875
• Closing costs: $9,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7537 Luminary Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,600	$1.48	2d	1	0.10mi
1603 Rustads Cir Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,200	$1.60	3d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $327,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $327,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $327,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $327,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $327,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $327,500 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $327,500 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $327,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $327,500 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,500 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,500 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,500 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,500 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $327,500 Active
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $327,500
16. 2019-03-26
    soldstatus $246,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$588/yr (+$49/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,345
• − Property taxes: −$2,097
• − Insurance: −$1,638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$9,527
• Taxable loss: −$7,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (James City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,286 people
• By 2030: 89,687 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 99,580 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 108,487 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 128,950 · +53.0%
• By 2100: 138,702 · +64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · James City

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.5% · R 46.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: R+5.1 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+33.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $327,500 REINMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $327,500 REINMLS
• 2019-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $246,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,097 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.