5011 W County Road 490 · Keiser, AR 72351

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 1976 Poor condition 0.50 ac lot $28/sqft · 83% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for your own piece of land near Milligans Ridge and Caraway this half acre plot of ground with a house could be a good fit. Three bedrooms one bathroom and an outbuilding.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 54 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($977 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#355 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Manila School District (rural): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 238 in AR (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $897 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.99%
• DSCR: 4.60
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,963
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -83.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $39,606
• Equity at exit: $13,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.82×
• Total profit: $90,581
• Equity at exit: $20,719

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72351

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $586	-5% $575	+0% $565	+5% $555	+10% $544
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $526	+0% $565	+5% $604	+10% $642
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $573	base $565	+0.5pp $557	+1.0pp $549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $29,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $29,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $29,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $29,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $29,900 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you are looking for your own piece of land near Milligans Ridge and Caraway this half acre plot of ground with a house could be a good fit. Three bedrooms one bathroom and an outbuilding.

11. 2026-04-16
    listed $39,900 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you are looking for your own piece of land near Milligans Ridge and Caraway this half acre plot of ground with a house could be a good fit. Three bedrooms one bathroom and an outbuilding.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$938
• − Management: −$938
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $6,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,609
• After-tax cash flow: $5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and renovations, including painting, flooring replacement, and kitchen and bathroom updates. Significant improvements would be needed to make it move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen flooring — Exposed subflooring and missing countertops indicate significant damage.
• Major Bathroom flooring — Dirty bathtub and toilet suggest severe neglect.
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and peeling siding indicates significant deterioration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the exterior siding — Fresh paint and updated siding would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom renovations — Renovating the kitchen and bathroom would significantly improve the home's functionality and appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen flooring · Exposed subflooring and missing countertops indicate significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom flooring · Dirty bathtub and toilet suggest severe neglect.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and peeling siding indicates significant deterioration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the exterior siding — Fresh paint and updated siding would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom renovations — Renovating the kitchen and bathroom would significantly improve the home's functionality and appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manila School District
• NCES district ID: 0500046
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $38,252
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5906
• State rank: #94 of 238 in AR

Livability — Keiser

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #22000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 796
• Population (ZIP): 796

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $29,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $39,900 NEABOR MLS