20 Pelican Pl · Port Townsend, WA 98368

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 2022 $170/sqft · 36% below area Est $342k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New! just set, and ready for first time use! Really nice super solid 3 bedroom home on a sunny leased lot in quiet neighborhood close to PT and the Larry Scott Trail. New landscape, new appliances, new everything!!

Key facts

• New septic
• New appliances
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• SUNNY LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEW SEPTIC
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.5% in Port Townsend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#506 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Port Townsend School District (town): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #101 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $229k implies a 665% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,500
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -33.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Flamingo Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$112	85
171 Arcadia W	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$540,000	$417	81
10 Pelican Pl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	18mo	$180,000	$156	60
170 Flamingo Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	19mo	$151,000	$131	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-18,855
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,966
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98368

• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $239,000
18. 2026-02-23
    price $247,500
19. 2026-01-13
    price $259,000
20. 2025-12-09
    listed $285,000 Active
21. 1999-09-20
    soldstatus $29,950
22. 1999-09-20
    soldstatus $29,950
23. 1999-03-10
    listed $29,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$73
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Townsend School District
• NCES district ID: 5306840
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,686
• Composite: 48.79/100
• National rank: #4526
• State rank: #101 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Townsend

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #20880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 17,304 people
• City population: 17,304
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,304
• Household income: $69,688
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 345.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,415 people
• By 2030: 31,568 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 30,911 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 29,927 · -4.7%
• By 2075: 28,489 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 26,483 · -15.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.3) · D 71.0% · R 25.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.7pp toward D · 2008: 34.6pp · 2024: 45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.3 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+32.7 2012: D+31.4 2008: D+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -577.30%
• Current HPI: 183.9706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+698.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $239,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $247,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $259,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $285,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $29,950 Public Records
• 1999-09-20 Sold (MLS) $29,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-10 Listed $29,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,951 · +7704.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.