11263 Samuel Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$244,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1959 8,712 sqft lot Est $263k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just completely renovated!!! Beautiful home in highly sought after San Mateo. This home will not last long! Big 4 bedroom 2 full bath with tons of space and storage and a fireplace! Awesome screened in back porch with fans perfect for entertaining. Brand new roof, A/C, kitchen & appliances with a deep sink. All new paint & flooring throughout the house. New carpet in the bedrooms. Bathrooms are all new with stunning tile. Master has full bath with a HUGE walk-in closet. Great location, stelllar neighbors and walking distance to the park as well as ''A'' rated San Mateo Elementary school. Proudly renovated by Salty Dogs Properties. This home is worth seeing & will not last long!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Huge walk in closet
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREEN ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HUGE WALK IN CLOSET
• EXTENSIVELY RENOVATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Additional parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level (entry level 1); Faces west; Currently used as residential single family
• Construction: Block and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Back porch; Privacy wood fencing; Shingle roof; City street frontage; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Butler/buffet area off kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub/shower; Wood-burning fireplace; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($95/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Mateo Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 534 students, 48% FRL); Oceanway School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 927 students, 51% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,256 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11448 Harlan Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,524 (-3%)	0mo	$135,000	$89	73
11271 Americana Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,482 (-5%)	6mo	$235,000	$159	69
303 Rio Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+2%)	11mo	$253,500	$159	69
11212 Americana Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+3%)	8mo	$259,900	$162	68
11456 Avery Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$152	66
442 Baisden Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (+9%)	6mo	$311,000	$183	66
11279 Princessa Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+3%)	10mo	$299,000	$186	63
11259 Soforenko Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$167	62
11305 Emuness Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,388 (-11%)	6mo	$245,000	$177	61
11324 Princessa Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,781 (+14%)	1mo	$305,000	$171	57
237 Renne Dr N	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-14%)	6mo	$240,000	$178	49
11303 Princessa Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (+13%)	6mo	$296,000	$168	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,964
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-61,433
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $244,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11267 Bruce Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,725	$1.54	15d	1	0.07mi
498 Auburn Oaks Rd E Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	2051	$2,259	$1.10	16d	1	0.37mi
11436 Princessa Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,539	$1.01	15d	1	0.46mi
11436 Princessa Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,504	$0.99	11d	1	0.46mi
11701 Palm Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,957	$1.96	2d	80	0.60mi
11011 Harts Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,742	$1.66	2d	23	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $244,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    price $260,000
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $275,000 Active
15. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus $179,900
16. 2019-10-01
    soldstatus $179,900 Sold 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Just completely renovated!!! Beautiful home in highly sought after San Mateo. This home will not last long! Big 4 bedroom 2 full bath with tons of space and storage and a fireplace! Awesome screened in back porch with fans perfect for entertaining. Brand new roof, A/C, kitchen & appliances with a deep sink. All new paint & flooring throughout the house. New carpet in the bedrooms. Bathrooms are all new with stunning tile. Master has full bath with a HUGE walk-in closet. Great location, stelllar neighbors and walking distance to the park as well as ''A'' rated San Mateo Elementary school. Proudly renovated by Salty Dogs Properties. This home is worth seeing & will not last long!

17. 2019-09-13
    status Pending 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Just completely renovated!!! Beautiful home in highly sought after San Mateo. This home will not last long! Big 4 bedroom 2 full bath with tons of space and storage and a fireplace! Awesome screened in back porch with fans perfect for entertaining. Brand new roof, A/C, kitchen & appliances with a deep sink. All new paint & flooring throughout the house. New carpet in the bedrooms. Bathrooms are all new with stunning tile. Master has full bath with a HUGE walk-in closet. Great location, stelllar neighbors and walking distance to the park as well as ''A'' rated San Mateo Elementary school. Proudly renovated by Salty Dogs Properties. This home is worth seeing & will not last long!

18. 2019-08-30
    historical Active - Contingent 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Just completely renovated!!! Beautiful home in highly sought after San Mateo. This home will not last long! Big 4 bedroom 2 full bath with tons of space and storage and a fireplace! Awesome screened in back porch with fans perfect for entertaining. Brand new roof, A/C, kitchen & appliances with a deep sink. All new paint & flooring throughout the house. New carpet in the bedrooms. Bathrooms are all new with stunning tile. Master has full bath with a HUGE walk-in closet. Great location, stelllar neighbors and walking distance to the park as well as ''A'' rated San Mateo Elementary school. Proudly renovated by Salty Dogs Properties. This home is worth seeing & will not last long!

19. 2019-08-01
    listed $179,900 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Just completely renovated!!! Beautiful home in highly sought after San Mateo. This home will not last long! Big 4 bedroom 2 full bath with tons of space and storage and a fireplace! Awesome screened in back porch with fans perfect for entertaining. Brand new roof, A/C, kitchen & appliances with a deep sink. All new paint & flooring throughout the house. New carpet in the bedrooms. Bathrooms are all new with stunning tile. Master has full bath with a HUGE walk-in closet. Great location, stelllar neighbors and walking distance to the park as well as ''A'' rated San Mateo Elementary school. Proudly renovated by Salty Dogs Properties. This home is worth seeing & will not last long!

20. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus $71,200
21. 1992-09-28
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable loss: −$4,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$986
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+288.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $260,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 2019-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2019-10-01 Sold (MLS) $179,900 realMLS
• 2019-09-13 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-08-30 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-08-01 Listed $179,900 realMLS
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,200 Public Records
• 1992-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.