408 Allen St · Kyle, TX 78640

$96,500

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 1979 Poor condition 9,583 sqft lot $84/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIME LOCATION in downtown Kyle, TX * * * Investor Special * * * , home is a tear down on pier and beam. NO HOA, LOW TAX RATE

Key facts

• Low tax rate
• Prime location
• No hoa

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• NO HOA
• LOW TAX RATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $667 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $78k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,815 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.42%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,992
• List price: $96,500
• Delta: -64.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,081
• Equity at exit: $14,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,091
• Equity at exit: $8,344

Cash invested: $27,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$506
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $96,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,125
• Closing costs: $2,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 W Moore St Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	17d	1	0.29mi
203 W North St Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0	1049	$1,100	$1.05	43d	1	0.58mi
300 Veterans Dr Unit C Kyle, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,400	$1.40	17d	1	0.60mi
106 Cockerham St Unit A Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,200	$1.45	12d	1	0.65mi
200 Philomena Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$990	$1.00	2d	24	0.85mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,300	$1.47	2d	93	1.16mi
1561 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	3d	1	1.25mi
21393 Interstate 35 Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$950	$0.98	4d	7	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,500 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,500 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,500 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,500 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $96,500 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $96,500 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $96,500 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $96,500 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $96,500 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,500 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,500 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,500 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $96,500 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Prime Downtown Kyle Infill Opportunity! Rare . 22-acre corner lot with city water, sewer, and electricity already connected — a major cost and time saver for your next build. The existing estimated 1,000 sq ft pier & beam structure is in extremely poor condition and considered a light tear-down, keeping demolition costs manageable compared to larger slab homes. Structure is on Pier and Beam. Zoned residential with no HOA and a low property tax rate. Ideal for a custom home, spec build, or long-term hold. Established utilities, downtown location, and corner positioning make this a strong redevelopment play in one of Kyle’s growing central areas. Property being sold as-is. Buyer to verify zoning, setbacks, and development requirements with the City of Kyle.

15. 2026-05-19
    price $96,500 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Prime Downtown Kyle Infill Opportunity! Rare . 22-acre corner lot with city water, sewer, and electricity already connected — a major cost and time saver for your next build. The existing estimated 1,000 sq ft pier & beam structure is in extremely poor condition and considered a light tear-down, keeping demolition costs manageable compared to larger slab homes. Structure is on Pier and Beam. Zoned residential with no HOA and a low property tax rate. Ideal for a custom home, spec build, or long-term hold. Established utilities, downtown location, and corner positioning make this a strong redevelopment play in one of Kyle’s growing central areas. Property being sold as-is. Buyer to verify zoning, setbacks, and development requirements with the City of Kyle.

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $175,000 Active 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Prime Downtown Kyle Infill Opportunity! Rare . 22-acre corner lot with city water, sewer, and electricity already connected — a major cost and time saver for your next build. The existing estimated 1,000 sq ft pier & beam structure is in extremely poor condition and considered a light tear-down, keeping demolition costs manageable compared to larger slab homes. Structure is on Pier and Beam. Zoned residential with no HOA and a low property tax rate. Ideal for a custom home, spec build, or long-term hold. Established utilities, downtown location, and corner positioning make this a strong redevelopment play in one of Kyle’s growing central areas. Property being sold as-is. Buyer to verify zoning, setbacks, and development requirements with the City of Kyle.

17. 2026-02-26
    price $175,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    PRIME LOCATION in downtown Kyle, TX * * * Investor Special * * * , home is a tear down on pier and beam. NO HOA, LOW TAX RATE

18. 2026-02-18
    listed $200,000 Active 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    PRIME LOCATION in downtown Kyle, TX * * * Investor Special * * * , home is a tear down on pier and beam. NO HOA, LOW TAX RATE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$482
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$2,807
• Taxable income: $3,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$740
• After-tax cash flow: $3,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior, foundation, and landscaping, as well as HVAC and mechanical upgrades. Significant value can be added through these updates, making it a prime opportunity for an investor.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — The siding is visibly damaged and needs replacement.
• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.
• Major foundation — The foundation is visibly damaged and may need repair or replacement.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may need replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is minimal and in poor condition, requiring significant improvement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive exterior repairs and landscaping — These updates would significantly improve the home's appearance and curb appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Upgrading these systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both interior repairs and updates — These updates would improve the home's livability and aesthetic appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · The siding is visibly damaged and needs replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · The foundation is visibly damaged and may need repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is minimal and in poor condition, requiring significant improvement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive exterior repairs and landscaping — These updates would significantly improve the home's appearance and curb appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Upgrading these systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both interior repairs and updates — These updates would improve the home's livability and aesthetic appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $96,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $96,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $175,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $200,000 Unlock MLS