9250 Grace Ridge Dr · Willis, TX 77318

$299,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,622 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 4,825 sqft lot $114/sqft · 11% above area Est $270k · 11% over $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Redbud is a 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and features a kitchen with abundant counter space, an oversized 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Resort style pool
• Stunning pavilion

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-45
• STUNNING PAVILION
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• LARGE COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• BOARDWALK ALONG THE WATER
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($23/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $237,273 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,984
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: 11.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,532
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,430
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $299,990

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 688-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $299,990 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $299,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-05-05
   price $302,990 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   The Redbud is a 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and features a kitchen with abundant counter space, an oversized 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

9. 2026-05-04
   price $302,990 1010-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

   Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Series Design Collection! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! You'll love the kitchen layout with extra counterspace and a center island! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with silestone countertops, separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

10. 2026-05-02
    listed $305,195 Active 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    The Redbud is a 2-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and features a kitchen with abundant counter space, an oversized 1st floor primary suite, and upstairs game room.

11. 2026-04-22
    listed $303,414 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Love where you live in Ridgeland Hills in Willis, TX! Ridgeland Hills has convenient access directly to I-45 and features a stunning pavilion, resort style pool, large community playground and a boardwalk along the water for fishing! Now featuring Legend’s NEW Smart Home package and Signature Series Design Collection! The Redbud floor plan is a spacious two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, game room, and 2-car garage. This home has it all - including privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinets, silestone countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! You'll love the kitchen layout with extra counterspace and a center island! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a box window, double sinks with silestone countertops, separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Ridgeland Hills home, schedule a visit today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,225/yr (+$352/mo · 334.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $1,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $302,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $305,195 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $303,414 HARMLS

Property tax history

-14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.