2529 Mackinac Bay Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$355,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 467 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $164/sqft · 18% below area Est $436k · 18% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 467 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $356k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,083/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 467 days — a 12% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,441 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 467 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.85%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,886
• List price: $355,990
• Delta: -18.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14318 Lunan Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+5%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	80
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-7%)	1mo	$291,400	$144	69
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+2%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	63
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-0%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	60
13511 Golden Isle Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,150 (-1%)	2mo	$383,130	$178	59
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,063 (-5%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	54
13216 Harbor Point Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-4%)	2mo	$375,990	$181	53
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+13%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	49
13601 Fairway Arbor Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (+10%)	1mo	$394,990	$166	46
3026 Banyan Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-15%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	41
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	40
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-89,511
• Equity at exit: $53,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-109,281
• Equity at exit: $30,780

Cash invested: $99,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,867
• Tax from tax record: −$906 /mo · $10,873/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $-552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,782

Max offer price $258,441

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-351	-5% $-451	+0% $-552	+5% $-653	+10% $-754
Rent	-10% $-796	-5% $-674	+0% $-552	+5% $-430	+10% $-309
Rate	-1.0pp $-373	-0.5pp $-462	base $-552	+0.5pp $-644	+1.0pp $-738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,998
• Closing costs: $10,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	2d	1	0.51mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	12d	1	1.31mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,990 Active 467 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,990 Active 466 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,990 Active 465 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $355,990 Active 464 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $355,990 Active 462 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,990 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $355,990 Active 457 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $355,990 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $355,990 Active 453 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,990 Active 452 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,990 Active 451 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,990 Active 450 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,990 Active 449 DOM
14. 2025-08-28
    soldstatus Closed 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

15. 2025-07-17
    status Pending 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

16. 2025-07-16
    status Active 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

17. 2025-07-16
    price $299,990 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

18. 2025-06-24
    status Pending 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

19. 2025-03-31
    status Pending 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

20. 2025-03-08
    listed $355,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Hello and welcome to 2529 Mackinac Bay Drive. This is a two-story house that includes four bedrooms, three bathrooms, an upstairs loft and a two car garage. This house spans 2,156 square feet and will be a lovely abode for you and your family! Upon entering this beautiful house, you will notice the first secondary bedroom, utility room, and secondary bathroom. The secondary bedroom is located by the front of the house and has carpeted floors, a large window, and a tall closet. The utility room is positioned in between the secondary bedroom and secondary bathroom. This room has vinyl floors and enough space for a washer and dryer. The secondary bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring, a tile tub, and a linen closet. Continuing through the house, you will find the L-shaped kitchen, dining room, and family room. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting celebrations and dinners with family and friends. This area of the home has vinyl flooring and large windows that open to the back of the house, allowing for sunlight to stream into the room. The L-shaped kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and a tall pantry. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family bedroom. This room has carpet floors and two bright windows that open to the back of the house. The primary bedroom has enough room for a queen-sized bed, and it leads to the primary bathroom, which is complete with vinyl floors, a tile tu

21. 2025-02-25
    listed $355,990 Active 919-char remark

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,873 · $906/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,873 · $906/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,941
• − Property taxes: −$10,873
• − Insurance: −$2,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,960
• − Management: −$2,960
• − Depreciation: −$10,356
• Taxable loss: −$12,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,041
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $355,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-25 Listed $355,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+138.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,873 · +726.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.