2529 Mackinac Bay Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$355,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 518 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $164/sqft · 18% below area Est $436k · 18% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Midland plan in the Lago Mar community! This two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, and a 2-car garage with 2,170 sq. ft. of living space. Inside, you'll find a secondary bedroom, utility room, and bathroom near the front. The bedroom features carpet, a large window, and a generous closet. The utility room has space for a washer and dryer, and the bathroom includes vinyl floors, a tile tub, and a linen closet. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, a spacious island, and a pantry, with large windows bringing in natural light. The primary bedroom offers a bright en-suite with a tile tub, linen nook, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, the game room and two additional bedrooms with walk-in closets share a bathroom. Enjoy outdoor living on your covered patio. Call for a tour today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 517 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $356k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-878 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 518 days — a 12% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,457 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 518 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.77%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,176
• List price: $355,990
• Delta: -18.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3002 Fair Wind Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,188 (+1%)	1mo	$369,900	$169	75
2214 Sereno Shores Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-7%)	2mo	$294,900	$146	73
13722 Ballast Green Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,150 (-1%)	2mo	$389,940	$181	70
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-7%)	2mo	$291,400	$144	68
3203 Sea Nettles Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+1%)	1mo	$333,900	$152	66
3206 Freeboard Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	0mo	$315,000	$139	65
2218 Sereno Shores Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	2mo	$284,900	$150	59
13718 Ballast Green Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,101 (-3%)	1mo	$359,130	$171	57
2433 Mar Vista Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-7%)	1mo	$346,400	$171	55
2825 Golden Isle Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,290 (+6%)	0mo	$399,990	$175	54
13721 Seneca Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	2mo	$289,900	$153	53
3105 Sea Nettles Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-12%)	1mo	$328,900	$173	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-110,670
• Equity at exit: $53,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-156,123
• Equity at exit: $30,780

Cash invested: $99,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 203 active · 78 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $346,556 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 59% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,867
• Tax from tax record: −$906 /mo · $10,873/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,782

Max offer price $217,457

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-677	-5% $-777	+0% $-878	+5% $-979	+10% $-1,080
Rent	-10% $-1,089	-5% $-984	+0% $-878	+5% $-773	+10% $-667
Rate	-1.0pp $-699	-0.5pp $-788	base $-878	+0.5pp $-970	+1.0pp $-1,064

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,998
• Closing costs: $10,680
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	42d	1	0.23mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1825	$2,650	$1.45	0d	5	0.23mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.51mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	17d	1	0.94mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	1.31mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	1.35mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	1.36mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	1.36mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	1.43mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	1.47mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $355,990 Active 518 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $355,990 Active 516 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $355,990 Active 515 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $355,990 Active 514 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $355,990 Active 513 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $355,990 Active 510 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $355,990 Active 509 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $355,990 Active 508 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $355,990 Active 507 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $355,990 Active 505 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $355,990 Active 503 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $355,990 Active 502 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $355,990 Active 501 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $355,990 Active 500 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $355,990 Active 499 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,990 Active 497 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,990 Active 496 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,990 Active 495 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $355,990 Active 494 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $355,990 Active 493 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,990 Active 492 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $355,990 Active 491 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $355,990 Active 490 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $355,990 Active 489 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $355,990 Active 488 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $355,990 Active 486 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,990 Active 485 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $355,990 Active 484 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $355,990 Active 483 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $355,990 Active 482 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $355,990 Active 481 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $355,990 Active 480 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $355,990 Active 479 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $355,990 Active 478 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $355,990 Active 477 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $355,990 Active 476 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $355,990 Active 475 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $355,990 Active 473 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $355,990 Active 471 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $355,990 Active 470 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $355,990 Active 467 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $355,990 Active 466 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $355,990 Active 465 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $355,990 Active 464 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $355,990 Active 462 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $355,990 Active 458 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $355,990 Active 457 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,990 Active 456 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,990 Active 453 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,990 Active 452 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,873 · $906/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,873 · $906/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,941
• − Property taxes: −$10,873
• − Insurance: −$2,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,564
• − Management: −$2,564
• − Depreciation: −$10,356
• Taxable loss: −$16,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $355,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-25 Listed $355,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+138.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,873 · +726.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.