10226 Rockaway Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$228,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1960 6,464 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Taken down to the studs and completely rebuilt, this stunning renovation offers the rare opportunity to own a home where nearly everything is new. Major updates include the roof, plumbing, electrical, windows, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, landscaping, and exterior finishes. The redesigned elevation creates exceptional curb appeal, while the interior showcases granite countertops, modern finishes, and a fresh contemporary design throughout. Beyond the beauty, the true value is peace of mind. The costly repairs and major system replacements have already been completed, allowing you to move in and enjoy your home from day one. Located in the established Fontaine Place community with no HOA fe

Key facts

• 6,464 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,037 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,875
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7234 Boggess Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (+2%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	82
7261 Boggess Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-3%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	81
10214 Bretton Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,126 (-7%)	3mo	$125,000	$111	73
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,107 (-9%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	72
7321 Wiley Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,262 (+4%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	70
10414 Onslow St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (-0%)	3mo	$199,500	$165	67
6015 Langley Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,245 (+2%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	66
10329 Wicklowe St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,194 (-2%)	2mo	$149,000	$125	63
7314 Bigwood St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (-8%)	2mo	$90,000	$80	57
10535 Hollyglen Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (+11%)	4mo	$124,900	$93	56
7630 Yoe St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+7%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	46
7421 Claiborne St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (-12%)	0mo	$129,900	$121	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $82,881
• Equity at exit: $183,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $246,134
• Equity at exit: $374,136

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,622/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,910

Max offer price $181,948

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.20mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.28mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	0.54mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.56mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.56mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.56mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	0.83mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.86mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.92mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	1.13mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	1.24mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,199	$1.34	1d	5	1.26mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.31mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.32mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.43mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	1.48mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	1.48mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $228,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $228,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,622 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,172 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,550/yr (+$129/mo · 59.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$2,622
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$7,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+815.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $228,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-09 Listed $24,900 HARMLS
• 2000-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,622 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.