728 Rivera Rd · The Villages, FL 32159

$307,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1994 6,100 sqft lot Est $322k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! Welcome to 728 Rivera Rd, located in the sought-after Village of Rio Grande in The Villages! Bond Paid! This well-maintained home offers a comfortable and functional layout with plenty of space to enjoy both indoors and out. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home showcases an open, inviting floor plan that feels bright and spacious throughout. The kitchen is outfitted with stainless steel appliances and offers ample workspace and storage, making it both practical and stylish. The home includes a Florida Room and a screened lanai, providing versatile spaces to unwind or entertain. A bonus family room adds even more flexibility—ideal for a second living area,

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Bonus family room
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREENED LANAI
• BONUS FAMILY ROOM
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• NICELY POSITIONED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: Association amenities include pool and recreational facilities; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East facing; Residential zoning; Deed restrictions; Located in a senior community; Golf and golf cart friendly community
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with typical residential framing
• Exterior features: Lighting; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-158/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,378/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $307k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,789 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 Leone Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+2%)	0mo	$330,000	$216	89
676 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+2%)	2mo	$335,000	$219	86
674 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-7%)	1mo	$279,900	$202	74
703 Melendez Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+1%)	3mo	$320,000	$212	70
923 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+2%)	2mo	$292,000	$191	70
930 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+4%)	1mo	$292,000	$187	66
430 Aldama Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+2%)	1mo	$420,000	$275	61
1605 Chavez Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+10%)	2mo	$320,000	$195	58
1028 Soledad Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+7%)	1mo	$437,500	$275	58
1601 Chavez Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-11%)	1mo	$300,000	$225	58
528 Carrera Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$200	57
421 Aldama Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-7%)	2mo	$320,000	$230	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,203
• Equity at exit: $45,775

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-33,052
• Equity at exit: $26,544

Cash invested: $85,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,378 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $304,670

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $74	+0% $-13	+5% $-100	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-107	+0% $-13	+5% $81	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $65	base $-13	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,750
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Enconto St Unit 1525268P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,788	$1.63	23d	1	0.08mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	23d	1	0.24mi
628 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,245	$1.85	23d	1	0.28mi
716 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,450	$2.24	23d	1	0.29mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.29mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	23d	1	0.36mi
1330 La Jolla Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$3,000	$2.47	23d	1	0.36mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	23d	1	0.40mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	26d	1	0.58mi
314 Juarez Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	23d	1	0.66mi
1688 Garcia Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,700	$1.58	23d	1	0.72mi
932 Chula Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$3,000	$2.23	5d	1	0.78mi
411 Del Mar Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$3,000	$1.73	26d	1	0.78mi
623 Arteaga Way Unit 1525262P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,896	$1.15	23d	1	0.91mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	23d	1	0.94mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	23d	1	0.96mi
1205 Bower Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$2,750	$1.47	26d	1	0.97mi
710 Cortez Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	26d	1	1.03mi
323 Chula Vista Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,700	$1.82	26d	1	1.05mi
715 Hudson Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,700	$1.94	26d	1	1.17mi
10840 NE 89th Dr The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,924	$2.09	23d	21	1.26mi
1401 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$1,999	$1.29	26d	1	1.27mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	23d	1	1.31mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	1.35mi
1430 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,500	$1.82	26d	1	1.37mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $307,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $307,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $307,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $307,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $307,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $307,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $307,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $307,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $307,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $307,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $307,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $307,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $307,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $307,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $307,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $307,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $335,000 Active
18. 1994-12-19
    soldstatus $110,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,548 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$58/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,197
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,283
• − Management: −$2,283
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$5,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $1,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+202.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $110,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.