2769 28th St SW Lot 178 · Wheeler, MN 56623

$33,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1978 Average condition 1,216 sqft lot $208/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on a rented lot in the Lake of the Woods Campground! This home features newer flooring, large addition with tongue and groove paneling & a storage shed. You'll also love the heated pool, playground and marina at the campground. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity for summer fun!

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Storage shed
• Large addition

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEWER FLOORING
• LARGE ADDITION
• TONGUE AND GROOVE PANELING
• STORAGE SHED
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $34k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Of The Woods School District (rural): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #259 of 301 in MN (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake of The Woods Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #604 of 857 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 45% FRL); Lake of The Woods Secondary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #369 of 471 statewide, top 79%, 191 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Lake of the Woods County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $234 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake of the Woods County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $31,866 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.99%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $17,821
• Equity at exit: $5,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $45,936
• Equity at exit: $2,931

Cash invested: $9,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56623

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $560

Max offer price $33,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $376	+0% $364	+5% $352	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $283	-5% $323	+0% $364	+5% $404	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $372	base $364	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,475
• Closing costs: $1,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $33,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $33,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $33,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $33,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $33,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $33,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $33,900 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $33,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $33,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,900 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $33,900 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Check out this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home on a rented lot in the Lake of the Woods Campground! This home features newer flooring, large addition with tongue and groove paneling & a storage shed. You'll also love the heated pool, playground and marina at the campground. Don't miss out on this affordable opportunity for summer fun!

19. 2026-01-29
    historical
20. 2025-07-28
    listed $33,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,899
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$986
• Taxable income: $4,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $3,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. A fresh paint job, new flooring, and modern appliances would significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Major Flooring — Carpeted floors show significant wear
• Major Kitchen appliances — Appliances appear outdated and may need replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Bathroom fixtures show signs of wear and may need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint job — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Modern kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters
• Both Updated bathroom fixtures — Upgraded bathroom fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded and needs touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Carpeted floors show significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen appliances · Appliances appear outdated and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Bathroom fixtures show signs of wear and may need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint job — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Modern kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Updated bathroom fixtures — Upgraded bathroom fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Of The Woods School District
• NCES district ID: 2717570
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #6498
• State rank: #259 of 301 in MN

Livability — Wheeler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,684

Population outlook (Lake of the Woods County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,706 people
• By 2030: 3,565 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 3,224 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 2,957 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 2,685 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 2,544 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Scottish 6% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake of the Woods

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.8% · R 72.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.47%
• Current HPI: 184.2846
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $33,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $33,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid