10201 N 99th Ave #66 · Peoria, AZ 85345

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 280 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1978 Good condition $36/sqft · 34% below area Est $53k · 34% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.4

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND: Look at this absolutely meticulously maintained and updated 2 bedroom 2 bath split floor plan. Open floorplan in kitchen and front room. Inside laundry for convenience. All appliances convey. New windows, updated electrical Panel, private backyard recently fenced. Roof replaced 2024. Rare find 1 car garage. Located in Sevilla Sol, a 55 plus age restricted gated community. Community recently updated pool, spa, added pickleball court and dog park. Rec center almost complete. Lots of activities.

Key facts

• Recently fenced
• Gated community
• Private backyard

Tags

• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• RECENTLY FENCED
• REPLACED ROOF
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.2% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 806 students, 65% FRL); Raymond S. Kellis (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #114 of 381 statewide, top 30%, 1,817 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 410 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (57%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.96%
• DSCR: 4.96
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,356
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -34.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10201 N 99th Ave Unit 49B	0.06mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	2mo	$19,000	$21	81
10201 N 99th Ave Unit 135F	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	7mo	$17,500	$20	80
10201 N 99th Ave #44	0.06mi	2/2.0	896 (-9%)	8mo	$28,500	$32	76
10201 N 99th Ave Unit 28A	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	1mo	$56,500	$50	75
10701 N 99th Ave #136	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+4%)	7mo	$55,000	$54	68
10701 N 99th Ave #159	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+6%)	5mo	$22,000	$21	66
10701 N 99th Ave #77	0.45mi	2/1.5	900 (-8%)	0mo	$28,900	$32	63
10701 N 99th Ave #63	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,032 (+5%)	9mo	$25,000	$24	59
11275 N 99th Ave #215	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,066 (+9%)	9mo	$262,000	$246	51
10701 N 99th Ave #178	0.42mi	2/1.0	840 (-14%)	2mo	$15,000	$18	51
11275 N 99th Ave #10	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,066 (+9%)	8mo	$250,000	$235	45
11275 N 99th Ave #165	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	1mo	$257,000	$229	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $37,753
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $81,317
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $49,000 ($55/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85345

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $751	-5% $739	+0% $727	+5% $714	+10% $702
Rent	-10% $630	-5% $678	+0% $727	+5% $775	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $735	base $727	+0.5pp $717	+1.0pp $708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10110 N 97th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,500	$1.46	0d	1	0.25mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,750	$1.63	73d	1	0.39mi
10822 N Balboa Dr Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	942	$3,000	$3.18	73d	1	0.42mi
10701 N 99th Ave Unit 230 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	784	$1,099	$1.40	69d	1	0.42mi
9911 N 95th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.5	1072	$1,500	$1.40	2d	1	0.51mi
9680 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	945	$1,574	$1.67	2d	8	0.79mi
9248 W Mescal St Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	847	$1,435	$1.69	21d	1	0.95mi
9248 W Mescal St Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	847	$1,435	$1.69	18d	1	0.95mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1485	$2,286	$1.54	0d	8	0.96mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 213 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	858	$1,399	$1.63	73d	1	1.25mi
8940 W Olive Ave #70 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,600	$1.57	34d	1	1.27mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	897	$1,400	$1.56	66d	1	1.33mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	52d	1	1.36mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	73d	1	1.36mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,695	$1.58	48d	1	1.36mi
8757 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	985	$1,539	$1.56	9d	15	1.42mi
9538 W Echo Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,845	$1.67	15d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $35,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $35,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $35,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 272 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $35,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $45,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $45,000 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $45,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $45,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $45,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 259 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $45,000 Active 258 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $49,000 Active 257 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $49,000 Active 256 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $49,000 Active 255 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 254 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 253 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $49,000 Active 252 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $49,000 Active 251 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 250 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 248 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,000 Active 247 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,000 Active 246 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 245 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 244 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 243 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 242 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 241 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $49,000 Active 240 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $49,000 Active 239 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,000 Active 238 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $49,000 Active 237 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $49,000 Active 235 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $49,000 Active 233 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $49,000 Active 232 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $49,000 Active 229 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $49,000 Active 228 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $49,000 Active 227 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $49,000 Active 226 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $49,000 Active 223 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 220 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 219 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 218 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 215 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 214 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,678
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,083
• After-tax cash flow: $6,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,900–$14,700 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in a gated community is in good condition with recent updates, including a new roof and electrical panel. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for rental or resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace window seals — improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sun Valley Elementary School F AZ #623/1,109 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 High Raymond S. Kellis F AZ #114/381 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 60,918
• Household income: $67,380
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.77%
• Current HPI: 328.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $59,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $73,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $79,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $82,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $53,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-11 Listed $60,000 ARMLS