302 Windward Dr · League City, TX 77573

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1978 7,056 sqft lot $133/sqft · 19% below area Est $248k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in desirable League City! This4-bedroom,2-bath home offers a solid foundation with major updates already completed, including a recently replaced water heater and new attic insulation. With a functional layout and generous space, this property is ready for your personal touches and upgrades to bring it to its full potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value in a prime location. All info per seller.

Key facts

• Solid foundation
• Generous space
• Functional layout

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SOLID FOUNDATION
• RECENTLY REPLACED WATER HEATER
• NEW ATTIC INSULATION
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.7% in League City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#135 in TX, #3,961 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 944 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.59%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,976
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -19.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Baycrest Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,507 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$166	89
300 Windward Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-7%)	5mo	$263,900	$189	79
3106 Mariner Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-7%)	1mo	$233,000	$166	77
2913 Marlin Ct S	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-2%)	8mo	$270,000	$182	76
3213 Whitesail Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-0%)	9mo	$264,900	$176	76
3218 Windy Cape Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (+3%)	0mo	$305,000	$196	75
301 Bayridge Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+11%)	6mo	$265,000	$158	71
2919 Marlin Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-8%)	4mo	$249,900	$180	70
408 Bayridge Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,397 (-7%)	6mo	$237,500	$170	68
305 Baycrest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	4mo	$239,000	$177	66
3213 Wavecrest St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-10%)	1mo	$215,000	$159	65
847 Crystal Bay Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (+15%)	4mo	$359,900	$208	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,661
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,196
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77573

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 944
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,106/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,845

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2806 E League City Pkwy League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,920	$1.49	43d	1	0.30mi
2800 E League City Pkwy League City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,968	$2.00	1d	12	0.37mi
1750 E League City Pkwy Unit 3047 League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,984	$1.43	3d	1	1.49mi
1750 E League City Pkwy Unit 1783 League City, TX	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,992	$1.44	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Pending 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $200,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $250,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in desirable League City! This4-bedroom,2-bath home offers a solid foundation with major updates already completed, including a recently replaced water heater and new attic insulation. With a functional layout and generous space, this property is ready for your personal touches and upgrades to bring it to its full potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value in a prime location. All info per seller.

17. 2003-12-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,106 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,106
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — League City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: League City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 98,109
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 98,109
• Household income: $122,722
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2226.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.70%
• Current HPI: 244.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.78%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2003-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,106 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.