875 Sand Sea Pl · Haines City, FL 33844

$278,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Land · 194 Days on market

Built 2025 5,498 sqft lot $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Oct 2025! Configure the flex room in the front of the home to an at home office space or hobby space. Past the foyer, the open kitchen flows to the dining space, great room and outside patio. Private primary suite offers a spacious area to relax. Lawson Dunes - Signature Series offers new single-family homes in Haines City, FL. This community offers gorgeous open floorplans right for every lifestyle. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Outside patio
• Flex room
• Dining space

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING SPACE
• GREAT ROOM
• OUTSIDE PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,056 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-65,251
• Equity at exit: $41,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-93,063
• Equity at exit: $24,122

Cash invested: $78,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,266/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $234,257

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-174	+0% $-253	+5% $-332	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-340	+0% $-253	+5% $-167	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-182	base $-253	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,748
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.07mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	24d	1	0.15mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	0.17mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	11d	1	0.22mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	15d	1	0.35mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	12d	1	0.37mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	11d	1	0.39mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	24d	1	0.39mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	11d	1	0.41mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	19d	1	0.43mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	15d	1	0.43mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	19d	1	0.44mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	24d	1	0.50mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	19d	1	0.51mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.53mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	12d	1	0.54mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	24d	1	0.55mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	24d	1	0.56mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	24d	1	0.57mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	14d	1	0.59mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	24d	1	0.68mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	15d	1	0.74mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	4d	1	0.75mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	24d	1	0.75mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.76mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	3d	1	0.80mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	24d	1	0.82mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	24d	1	0.84mi
3377 Wakefield Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	24d	1	0.88mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.91mi
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	24d	1	0.94mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	24d	1	1.02mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	11d	1	1.03mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	24d	1	1.07mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	24d	1	1.25mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	4d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $278,990
3. 2026-02-12
   price $294,380
4. 2025-11-04
   price $309,380
5. 2025-10-10
   price $314,380
6. 2025-10-02
   listed $289,380 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,266 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,266 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,266
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $278,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $294,380 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $309,380 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $314,380 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listed $289,380 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,266 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.