22412 Deer Park Trl · Lincoln, DE 19960

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1995 0.55 ac lot $137/sqft · 40% below area Est $336k · 40% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cape Henlopen School District (town): math 42% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 26 in DE (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,716
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -40.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $125,219
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $356,052
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19960

• Home prices YoY: 23.9%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $250,000 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

18. 2026-02-21
    status Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

19. 2025-11-04
    historical Active Under Contract 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

20. 2025-08-22
    listed $270,000 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

21. 2025-08-20
    historical $270,000 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Back on market at no fault of the seller… Located in Cape Henlopen School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is situated on a half-acre lot in Kings Crossing Community. Inside, you’ll find a functional, open layout filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen, and spacious living areas designed for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath and ample closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, home office, or other needs. Outside, the expansive yard with a large shed provides endless possibilities — from outdoor gatherings to gardening or simply enjoying the extra space and privacy. This home is full of potential. Call today for additional information or to schedule a showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28
• After-tax cash flow: $3,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cape Henlopen School District
• NCES district ID: 1000170
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,196
• Composite: 42.47/100
• National rank: #3214
• State rank: #5 of 26 in DE

Livability — Lincoln

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,083

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scandinavian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.02%
• Current HPI: 367.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-20 Coming Soon $270,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $279 · -29.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.